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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #1909

    Default Re: Almost to Inflation!!!

    I thought about changing Boghie's inflation title, but I'm not there - so I'll let it scold me a bit more:

    In the meantime, red numbers for everything but G fund so far this month. Unless I see an earlier signal, my tentative re-entry will be either 12/19 or 12/22.

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  3. #1910

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Well well well:

    Looks like we have some grinching going on this year; still a fairly shallow dip (<5% from the SPY peak) on moderately-high (but not heavy) volume. It is hard for me to call this a bottom so I will wait some more.

    There's still a chance of a holiday rally, but it's not a given.

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  5. #1911

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Just so people know how far out in space I am:

    I am tentatively seeing this latest decline bottoming out in the range of 1,870-1,920 for the S&P; and I mean somewhere between December 29, 2014 to January 9, 2015; and there will also be a few positive days just before Christmas. Might be enough to trade on, might not.

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  7. #1912

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Worry, in fact, has played a prominent role throughout the bull market that started in the depths of the financial crisis - thanx.

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  9. #1913

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Interesting spike in mid-day volume; I suspect a rumor (or leak) on the Fed minutes/rate decision tomorrow regarding the language; haven't seen this in awhile but it isn't unique - if the rumor isn't founded on something more than sheer speculation (which is all we should have until the minutes are released), expect a sell-off by the close; my guess is up 0.5% today - won't challenge 2025, which could leave some room for pre-holiday rally.

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  11. #1914

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Looks like a combination of false rumors and program trading (round numbers, 6.9 million SPY at 2020; another couple million at 2000 in late afternoon). A whole bunch of lost money on whoever was doing the selling. Uber-bigs like AAPL got hammered. Unless conditions change - I'm seeing increased volume selling through the end of this week.

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  13. #1915

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    mid-week dip evaporated in lieu of an early santa rally; shaping up to challenge all-time high in the SPY, and crest the 50 EMA in the EFA. Whether this can continue to some psychological point, like 2,100 in the SPY, or re-challenge 2,025 (most likely after Christmas) remains to be seen. On a side note, I am trending towards beating the G-fund for the first time in at least 2 years; launching myself into the mid-600s rank on the tracker. Yay.

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  15. #1916

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Website is slow so I haven't looked at the recent IFT's to see if our leaders are moving yet; I suspect not:

    Seems like we're settling into the low volume drift up during holidays; except for F and I today; some unusual volume in AGG - not sure what is up with that, but it held me back abit. Otherwise, I'm not seeing much to act at the moment.

    Have a merry one.

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  17. #1917

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    As if anyone reads my account talk anymore:

    The ones that did noticed I have been wading out of equities; the Santa rally was almost a pre-holiday rally, similar to the one that preceded Turkey day; those who recall that one - and I do - remember that the selling started on first post-holiday trading day and continued for another ~7-8 sessions before the sharp bottom on 12/17/14. I am seeing the same set up here, if not more so with C- and S- funds breaking north of their channels.

    Market timer felixthecat, one of the annual and this month's return leader, locked in another gain with one day in F-fund. Uptrend, who has a more consistent build this year, is looking for a couple more weeks and predicting something around 2,350 before a dip of 500 points. That would be something if that is correct. We shall see.

    I plan to settle this year north of 3%, most of it in the last quarter; well - not really - I was approaching 3% earlier this year before losing nearly all of it on what are the worst-timed moves in my memory. Pardon me for being a bit shy thereafter - had I been more assertive on my more recent IFT's, my returns could have been doubled-tripled.

    Another way to look at it is that my meager returns this year is that they are 150X my 2013 return (0.02%).


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  19. #1918

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Looks like the ^VIX settled right on its 20 EMA; the last 3 times it crested above the 20 EMA (and five out of the last 8) - it signaled a significant dip thereafter; but you had to be watching closely and have your finger on the button to react to it and 2 out of 3 chances isn't a sure thing. ^VIX spikes do not usually come this close together (within a few weeks) - so this is a hard one to interpret but I had been watching it drift up the last few days.

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  21. #1919

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    Talk about a turd in the punchbowl:

    What the heck happened at 12 noon PST today (12/31/14)? Did everyone sell, buy shorts, and go home early (this is supposed to be a full trading day, not like Xmas eve)? In any case, the ^VIX looks to settle above its 20 EMA; which - per my last post - has been a good predictor of subsequent dips. It's starting to look like the 12/16/14 sharp bottom was an unfinished symphony, interrupted by holiday seasonality. Wouldn't it be something if the 12/16 lows were rechallenged so soon? We'll know better in another week as normal volume returns. I won't be re-capturing the 3% annual return this year, but close to it as I limited further losses by averaging down and out earlier this week.

    Anything can still happen, even in the last hour of today's trading. Happy new year.

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  23. #1920

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: amoeba's account talk

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48819.html

    "Don't worry so much about where stocks have been - don't drive by looking in the rear view mirror. Instead look ahead."

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