I hate it when JTH is silent.
In Dog Beers I've only had two.
I'm not sure what anyone would have me say, I've already given the forum July's forecast for the entire month. I stand by my analysis, and will continue to do so until the markets tell me otherwise. Sometimes folks spend too much time trying to make sense of the price action instead of accepting it for what it is. We can have 30 straight days of gains and the odds of the 31st day are the same as the 1st. How many folks got left behind in 2013, how many more will get left behind in 2014 thinking "Oh it can't possibly happen again?" Let's be honest, the markets do not care what we think, we are insignificant, only the markets are right, the question then becomes do we choose to listen to what the markets are telling us, or do we choose to impart what we think the markets should do?
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Sounds reasonable
In Dog Beers I've only had two.
Does this chart make sense?
Attachment 29341
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Highest levels in over 6 months...
Attachment 29351
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Last chart of the night for SPX, going back to 1963
1) The average returns for the past 209 quarters has a 64% winning ratio with a 1.95% average gain
2) There are 30 positive 2nd quarters on record
2) Of those 30 positive 2nd quarters, the 3rd quarter closed positive 63% of the time
3) The last 4 times the 2nd quarter closed positive, the 3rd quarter closed positive
Attachment 29352
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?
11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018
52 days with less than a 1% closing price move, I wouldn't sweat it just yet...
Attachment 29363
Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.
Is today Saturday again?
I do believe there is a certain amount of manipulation going on in the 'media'... all the talk of a crash a few months ago before the rally; then talk of how strong the market is and more room to run just before a pullback... the FED talking about reducing QE and then not doing so. So, yes, a healty level of Contrarian (skepticism) is not a bad thing
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
Bookmarks