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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #6697

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    I hate it when JTH is silent.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  3. #6698

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    I hate it when JTH is silent.
    Me too because his posts caused me to be in 100% instead of my normal 50%.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  5. #6699

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    I hate it when JTH is silent.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bquat View Post
    Me too because his posts caused me to be in 100% instead of my normal 50%.
    I'm not sure what anyone would have me say, I've already given the forum July's forecast for the entire month. I stand by my analysis, and will continue to do so until the markets tell me otherwise. Sometimes folks spend too much time trying to make sense of the price action instead of accepting it for what it is. We can have 30 straight days of gains and the odds of the 31st day are the same as the 1st. How many folks got left behind in 2013, how many more will get left behind in 2014 thinking "Oh it can't possibly happen again?" Let's be honest, the markets do not care what we think, we are insignificant, only the markets are right, the question then becomes do we choose to listen to what the markets are telling us, or do we choose to impart what we think the markets should do?
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  6.  
  7. #6700

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Sounds reasonable
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

  8.  
  9. #6701

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Does this chart make sense?

    Attachment 29341
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #6702

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Highest levels in over 6 months...

    Attachment 29351
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #6703

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Last chart of the night for SPX, going back to 1963

    1) The average returns for the past 209 quarters has a 64% winning ratio with a 1.95% average gain

    2) There are 30 positive 2nd quarters on record

    2) Of those 30 positive 2nd quarters, the 3rd quarter closed positive 63% of the time

    3) The last 4 times the 2nd quarter closed positive, the 3rd quarter closed positive

    Attachment 29352
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  14.  
  15. #6704

    Join Date
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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  17. #6705

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rktect1 View Post
    So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?
    I wonder if the pullback has begun today, instead of dropping after the 4th of July Holiday?


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  19. #6706

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rktect1 View Post
    So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?
    Quote Originally Posted by airlift View Post
    I wonder if the pullback has begun today, instead of dropping after the 4th of July Holiday?
    52 days with less than a 1% closing price move, I wouldn't sweat it just yet...

    Attachment 29363
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #6707

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.
    Is today Saturday again?

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  23. #6708

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jkenjohnson View Post
    This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.
    I do believe there is a certain amount of manipulation going on in the 'media'... all the talk of a crash a few months ago before the rally; then talk of how strong the market is and more room to run just before a pullback... the FED talking about reducing QE and then not doing so. So, yes, a healty level of Contrarian (skepticism) is not a bad thing
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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