Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Originally Posted by robo

Sold remaining shares of JNUG with the gap up this morning....

Waiting......

Nicely done!

Kaplan remains Bearish on TSP stock funds.


This is special intraday update #1960b for Friday morning, January 3, 2014.


I bought HDGE at 12.79 using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. Most investors are underestimating the possibility that many U.S. equity indices will soon complete or have already completed important historic peaks as we transition to what will eventually almost surely become a severe U.S. general equity bear market. The early stages of such a transition are often ignored because they are usually relatively mild, as is likely to be the case for most of 2014. During the 2007-2009 bear market, investors in August 2008 were still blissfully unconcerned about the possibility of a dramatic downtrend. Some other short choices may be superior, but selling short directly doesn't generally permit you to qualify for a long-term capital gain and would not be permitted in retirement and other all-cash accounts.

http://advisorshares.com/fund/hdge?g...FTRo7Aod-SIAgQ

True Contrarian

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

Nicely done!

CrabClaw,

Thanks. I left money on the table, but as you know trading the miners is tough. I'm waiting to see if the gap fills for gold and the miners, and will take another trade soon. If the low is forming for gold and the miners we should be able to make a nice chunk of money trading the miners this next cycle. It sure looks like a new cycle is just getting started. It will be a multi-month rally, with plenty of whipsaws, but we will do well playing the long side.

Good trading.

Precious Metals Positive Action Update

Created by Camtasia Studio 7

Created by Camtasia Studio 7

Created by Camtasia Studio 7


Jan 3, 2014 Precious Metals Positive Action Update Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s

I sure don't like the gaps on these charts.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HU...76&a=290636225

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gdxj

Friday, January 3, 2014 Gold working higher



Gold is experiencing what in trader slang is known as a "MELTUP". It continues to work higher but on extremely low volume and without much fanfare - very slow and steady.

Trader Dan's Market Views

Originally Posted by robo

I sure don't like the gaps on these charts.
j

I was thinking the same thing...

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

I was thinking the same thing...

I'm waiting for the next set-up and will buy JNUG or NUGT for a short-term trade. I sure don't mind paying more....I'll be short-term trading the miners for many months to come if this is the start of a new cycle. Buy the dips and sell the rips...that's what 3X indexes are for.... I will also be adding to my position trade...GDX and GDXJ.

The gap might not fill and we could just move sideways, but the Boyz sure like to fill those gaps.....so I wait.


Part of a comment from Kaplan a few minutes ago:

This is special intraday update #1960c for Friday afternoon, January 3, 2014.

As I frequently did in the early spring of 2012, I am adding another HDGE order at 12.79, at which price I was filled earlier this week and again earlier today, because I believe that we are transitioning to a major bear market for many U.S. equity sectors. I am not certain that this trade will be profitable in the short run, but I feel confident that it will be wildly profitable within two or three years. Amateurs keep buying into all early-day rebounds which is negative intraday behavior. Meanwhile, amateurs kept selling mining assets and their shares throughout December 2013 especially early each trading day, which may have appeared initially to be intelligent but will prove in retrospect to have been unloading just before major rallies in these securities.


http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Ok Jeff, but I have been hearing this for months.

By: Jeff Clark | Fri, Jan 3, 2014

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices

If you're like me, you've bought gold due to the money printing policies of most developed countries and the effect those policies will have on the future purchasing power of our paper money. Probably also because there's no viable way for governments to escape the consequences of all the debt they've piled up. And maybe because politicians can't be trusted to formulate a realistic strategy to avoid any number of monetary, fiscal, or economic crises going forward.

New Trend Guarantees Higher Gold Prices | Jeff Clark | Safehaven.com


I do not trade or own gold, but as gold moves so goes the miners....and I trade them.

This time it will probably be different......maybe!


January 2, 2014

Traders that are most consistently useful as contrary indicators have pushed their optimism to an extreme rarely seen in 27 years.

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NAAIM Survey of Managers | The National Association of Active Investment Managers - NAAIM


Alan has been crying wolf for a very long time.


HOME OF "PICTURES OF A STOCK MARKET MANIA"
December 31, 2013



"Never before in stock market history have investors been as exposed to downside risk as they are now. Given the length of time extreme risk has been confronted without serious consequence, we can infer fund managers are now completely oblivious to the risks of a bear market, let alone the possibility of a worst case scenario such as the two previous burst bubbles in which stock prices were cut in half."


Decision Point®: CrossCurrents -- Alan Newman

No comment, but it belongs here in the Bear Cave...

The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ

Originally Posted by tsptalk

No comment, but it belongs here in the Bear Cave...

Yeah - I would say so.....The thing is - the VIX is telling us that very few investors are even concerned about a correction not alone a Bear Market. Folks are now trained/conditioned to buy the dip and buying the dip in a Bear other then a short-term trade can get ugly pretty quick . I learned some hard lessons in 2000 / 2008 and 2009 trading and buying the freaking dip.

In a Bull Market we all look smart buying the dip, because the Bull saves us, but as you know a Bear is another story. Maybe none of this matters and the market will just keeping heading higher forever, but other then short-term moves my money will remain in the G Fund for 2014.... We could get some great trading ops the next few years for those of us willing to take quick trades, but it will be costly for many that try moving 100% of their money in and out of stock indexes in TSP. That's if we really are close to a new bear, and that's STBD.

I have plenty of cuts from 2000 and 2008 Bears to prove it, and I hope that I will be more disciplined the next Bear Market...."Whenever it shows it Ugly Head"....and I have NO IDEA when it will happen for sure or if it will happen, but I know it's coming.


Tom,

Buy a few shares of GDXJ for position trade...It will be a winner in my opinion in 2014.