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Market Commentary

November 24, 2020
 
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More vaccine hope triggers another Monday rally as we've come to expect each week.  The problem is, both of the prior two Monday rallies turned out to be the high for the week for the S&P 500 so we'll see if that pattern keeps going.  Small caps are a different story as they continue to plow higher through resistance and over extended indicators.  The Dow led the large cap indices with a gain of over 1%, while the S&P and Nasdaq gained 0.56% and 0.22% respectively.

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This holiday week does have a positive bias for stocks, but as I showed in the Thanksgiving seasonality chart yesterday, Mondays is supposed to be the weaker day this week.  Usually seasonality plays a big role for stocks between now and after the New Year, but 2020 is not a normal year.  Anyone disagree with that?  What a crazy 11 months we have just been through, and there's one left.

The bulls seem to be in control and despite the sharp increase in COVID cases and what that could do to the economy going forward, especially with lockdowns starting to pop up again, the carrot of a vaccine and stimulus continues to be dangled in front of investors and most people seem to be afraid to be left behind when that news eventually comes out.  But as we said above, we do tend to get a little selling after the Monday pop, so we'll see if the bears will do that again this week - a week that historically favors the bulls in a "typical year."

The internal numbers were great with about 80% of the trading volume going to advancing issues.  The Nasdaq was up just 0.22% but even it saw advancing volume beat declining by over 2.5 to 1.

                 


The market also seemed to like the news that Joe Biden will choose Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary, and she was one of the more dovish and pro-stimulus Fed Chairs that we've had over the years.  That may be as good of a pick as he could have made as far as the stock market is concerned. 

Admin Note:  The TSP is obviously closed on Thursday and we won't be posting a commentary.  I will post some kind of update on Friday but it will be brief.  I don't get many days off, no annual or sick days for me, so a 4 day weekend sounds refreshing for the mind.  I will post the updated shares and returns, and some thoughts, especially if we have any big moves in stocks or news leading up to it.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) traded right between those two lines that we have been watching - the area between the high in September and the high in October.  Without a resolution, the battle continues.  My guess is the winner of that battle, the bulls or the bears, will take charge for the next few weeks.  Of course we could get a fake out in one direction or the other off of a headline, so we may need to see a couple of closes above or below before we know.

         


The DWCPF (S-fund) remains on fire as it gained another 1.8% on the day, as if buyers are running to a blue light special at Kmart.  It's getting extended but there's no rules saying when it has to end, but the further it runs without consolidating, the more severe the pullback will likely be.  

        


The weekly chart of DWCPF shows just how far it has come in recent months.  By almost every measure it is overly extended, although it is only now getting back into the rising bullish channel from 2106 - 2018, so perhaps it is just finding its comfortable angle of incline after two years of turmoil?

        


However, the Monthly chart may be giving us the most clear picture that tells us that it's gone too far, too fast.  If you're in the S-fund, enjoy the ride, but you better buckle up.

        


The EFA (I-fund) was down on the day with a lot of that having to do with a big day for the dollar.

       


The dollar came off its highs yesterday, but still put in a positive outside reversal day on Monday, and that added some pressure to the I-fund.  Also, as we mentioned yesterday, there were some negative adjustments to the I-fund price on Monday, after Friday's possible over pricing.

                  


BND (F-fund) ended its 8 day winning streak on Monday, with a small loss.  The recent spike in COVID cases sent yields down last week (bond prices up) as we had a déjà vu economic scare with the lockdowns being announced again.  However the stock market seems to be looking a little further down the road with the success of the vaccines, so who's right?

         


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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