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Market Commentary

January 29, 2020
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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)

Stocks snapped back after a 6 day losing streak (for the Dow).  The Dow gained back 187-points and we saw much bigger percentage gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but it may have been a better sign if volume was a little better because the lighter trading volume doesn't make for a great reversal day.  But it is what it is - a nice day for stocks and a possible Turnaround Tuesday.  The questions is, was it just another dip buying day like all the rest of the dips, or was it a good selling opportunity for the bulls?

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Apple reported earnings after the bell and was up about 1% or so, while we saw several others down after hours after reporting like Ebay, Starbucks, and AMD.  But Apple is Apple and the market loves Apple, but there's a bit of a history with their earnings. 

I posted the chart below several times over the recent weeks to show how quickly a sell-off can erase months of gains.  Perhaps coincidentally, but like the Dow, the S&P 500 was down for 6 straight days in January 2018 before there was an impressive day and a half rally in early February, followed by another sell-off. 

And to tie the paragraph above that in, the peak in January 2018 was on the 28th, the day Apple reported their quarterly earnings that year.


The yield on the 10-year, which had been trending lower since mid-December, was up yesterday and it appeared to be trying to fill in the open gap from Monday morning.  That's normal technical behavior.  And as you'll see down below, a lot of yesterday's gains and losses in stocks and bonds were filling, or trying to fill, open gaps.


Day two of the FOMC meeting is today but there is no press conference afterward and no one is expecting a move in interest rates, so it may be a non-event, although anything they say could be a catalyst.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied to gain back a large portion of Monday's gain.  That's the glass half full way to look at it.  The glass half empty view may be that it was just enough to fill the open gap, which can then act as resistance.  A down day today may confirm that, while tacking on more upside and closing above the open gap would keep the bulls in charge.


The DWCPF (S-fund) also filled its open gap and actually closed above it, although technically we could say the top of that gap is at Monday's closing price which is the top of that blue box below.  Plus it is still below the old support support, which could now act as resistance.  So yes, the action was good, but there is still some technical work to be done before declaring the pullback over.


The Dow Transportation Index rallied but it too remains below some key resistance levels - the old support line and the 50-day EMA.


The EFA (I-fund) rallied with everything else, but the technical damage was pretty bad on Monday.  The top of the open gap is up near 69.40, so there is still room there, but it had already broken down badly from its trading channel.


The High Yield Corporate Bond fund may have had the best day technical analysis-wise as it not only filled its open gap and closed above it, but it also recaptured its 50-day EMA.  If there's a flaw it's that it is still below the new short-term descending resistance line.


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) also pulled back to nearly fill in Monday's open gap so Tuesday was indeed a turnaround day, but whether we can call it a Turnaround Tuesday may depend where things go from here, once those gaps are filled.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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