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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

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Market Commentary

May 27, 2022
 
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Stocks dismissed some negative earnings news on Thursday and moved significantly higher.  Even Nvidia, the stock that was dragging the futures down overnight after releasing earnings on Wednesday evening, closed with a big gain, and that's a pretty good sign, and a big difference from the relentless selling of all news events in recent weeks.  The Dow gained 517-points and once again the Nasdaq and small caps were the big movers with each gaining about 2.5%.  Bonds were down slightly, as was the dollar.

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The TSP shutdown is now in effect and I'm going to take advantage and keep the market analysis brief while it is down since we can't move our money around until they come back online, whenever that is exactly.  They said it will be down, "through the "first week in June."  I must have been in denial because the obvious interpretation of that, as pointed out by some of our members, is that it will be shut down through all of next week, so it may not be available again until Monday June 6.  At least next week is a holiday shortened week.

Stocks moved up sharply on Thursday as the market tries to put together some kind of bear market rally.  We had several one, two, or three day head fakes, but this was day five for the Dow and 4 of 5 up days for the S&P 500 so far, so it feels a little different, but I do have one crazy concern: 

The paranoid TSP investor in me is worried that this little pre-holiday rally was a way for "them" (whoever they are) to suck people back into the market, only to perhaps try to take that money away now that we are sitting ducks and cannot make any moves in our accounts.  That's probably not true and it's my way of denying that any losses are my own fault - but we know the large financial institutional trading desks are trained to try to out trade other people in an effort to take money from those accounts, and put it into theirs.  Why wouldn't they take advantage of this situation if they could?

Other than that, we did see some good technical action in the charts as some resistance was taken out on the upside, but in down trending markets there is always more resistance to deal with.  The last serious bear market rally came in March and it lasted about 11 trading days.  This one is now 5 days old.

Yesterday the up / down volume breadth on the NYSE was about 7 to 1 in favor of the up volume, so it was a serious gain.

I'll leave the TSP shutdown and new funds information below while we wait to see when it comes back online (June 6?) 

---------------------------------------------------------

Once again, the TSP will stop processing IFTs after noon ET on May 26 through the "first week in June", so this morning will be your last chance to make a move until they get back online.  What day exactly is the first week of June is, I don't know yet.  Perhaps it means all of next week.  More: https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/key-transition-dates

Monday is a holiday so we won't be posting a commentary that day, but I may also take a day or two off from the daily commentary with a couple of brief write ups while the TSP is down.  My TSP Talk Plus ETF System will continue to trade so there could be text alerts sent for those, but it has been a very long time since I have had a real vacation where I did not have to work at all during the week (2003, I believe) and so I may take advantage of this shutdown by cutting down on the commentaries while the TSP is shutdown.

RevShark is a pro trader so he's not taking time off so we will likely post his daily general market commentary for his subscribers each morning, and the Intrepid Timer service also has ETF trades so I assume he will keep subscribers up to date although the daily write ups may be limited during the TSP shutdown.

I will shut down the AutoTracker for IFT entries after noon on Thursday the 26th to keep in sync with the TSP.  I don't know when the TSP will be coming back online so I don't know how long I will restrict trades, but I will keep an eye out for information.  If you hear anything, please let me know.  tom @ ... etc. Thanks!

Here's some basic information from FedSmith.com about the new mutual funds that will be available, some of the requirements and restrictions in order to invest.  https://www.fedsmith.com/2022/05/10/tsp-mutual-fund-window-officially-beginning-in-june/

And from tsp.gov:

Mutual fund window

The mutual fund window is designed for TSP participants who are interested in greater investment flexibility. If your account meets certain eligibility criteria, you can choose to access a selection of more than 5,000 mutual funds. As with most mutual funds, this flexibility comes with fees:

$55 annual fee to ensure that use of the mutual fund window does not indirectly increase TSP administrative expenses for TSP participants who choose not to use the mutual fund window.

$95 annual maintenance fee

$28.75 per trade fee

Other fees and expenses specific to chosen mutual funds

If you choose to invest through the mutual fund window, your initial investment must be at least $10,000, and you may not invest more than 25% of your total account in the mutual fund window.


https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/summary-of-changes/#Investments


At this point we (TSP Talk) have decided not to incorporate the new mutual funds being offered by the the TSP into our AutoTracker.

The reasons being that there will be some 5000 options, and it would be too daunting of a task to program that in. Plus the fees involved (see below) would also impact the return of allocated in these funds, and so we would not be able to accurately reflect this in our returns.

So, for now, we keep the Autotracker as is. If we decide that some of the Premium Services will use a couple of these new funds, we may incorporate those funds at some point into the Autotracker just to keep the services accountable by accurately tracking their return, but we still do not know what those funds are so we can not speculate at this time.

We will keep you up to date as we get more information.
 



The S&P 500 (C-fund) confirmed Wednesday's break above that descending resistance line, and yesterday it managed to close just above the 200-day EMA.  It could certainly stall at any time and a down day might scare folks back to safety, but more likely there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that may catch that Fear of Missing Out syndrome (FOMO), and put some money to work.  We have a PMO pivot point as these crossovers can be good signs, but sometimes they are indications of being short term overbought.

       


Just another 2% plus move for the DWCPF (S-fund)
, this one up.  There's still the possibility this rally is part a bear flag, and that could be a concern.  There are a couple of overhead "stealth gaps" that may draw attention, and the 1800 might be the target and a tough resistance area if rally continues and it can get that far.

      


BND (bonds / F-fund) has been on a run lately but it is running into those 50 day averages and that may be why we saw some profit taking.  There was also a lot of money put in bonds in the last week and those investors may want to sell bonds and put some of that back in the stock market if the rally continues. 

       


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Thanks for reading.  Monday is a holiday and we cannot make an IFT on Friday so updates may be spotty until the TSP is back online for transactions (IFTs).  Enjoy your weekend!

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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