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Market Commentary

June 20, 2019

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Stocks tip-toed tentatively into the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday, and despite no rate cut, we saw a bit of a relief with some modest buying in the post announcement trading.  The Dow gained 38-points or 0.15%, while the S&P, Nasdaq, and the small caps saw moderately larger gains.  The Fed did not cut rates but clearly left the door open for one at their next meeting at the end of July.

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It's not unusual for the market to respond positively to the Fed who tends to do what they can to keep things running smoothly.  The question is, what is next now that the there was no June hike and only prospects of a cut at the next meeting?

There are six weeks from now until the Fed's next FOMC meeting and interest rate decision.  In that time we'll be going through a lot of ups and down regarding the one-two punch - the trade war negotiations and interest rates, and I'll add second quarter earnings announcements, although that seems secondary at this point.

Next week president Trump will meet with China's leader Xi.  Obviously a lot is riding on the outcome.  We'll get another jobs report, another GDP report, more manufacturing data, plus those earnings, so the market will be playing the bad news is good news game in regards to what will impact the Fed's decision to cut or not cut, so here we go again for six more weeks.  It will feel like an eternity waiting for that July 31 meeting.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) added onto Tuesday's rally with a modest Fed driven rally, which is typical action after an FOMC meeting.  Now it may get a little tougher with all of the cards on the table and six weeks of waiting for the next meeting.  There's an open gap near 2900, and as we talks about yesterday, the bull flag has already broken out, so now what?  It's pretty close to new highs and the market tends to pull toward those highs, but breaking out could be a little tougher.


Once again (I posted this yesterday) twice in 2018 we saw a similar looking bull flag. Both broke to the upside. Both also failed shortly thereafter.  We shall see in the next day or so if that's the case again.


The DWCPF (S-fund) had a nice day with a solid 0.44% gain, but we have the same scenario here with the bull flag breakout and the open gap.  There's also some minor resistance near 1417.


The EFA (I-fund) rallied strongly with the help a sharp decline in the dollar.  The overhead gap was filled.  Will that now be a level of resistance?  There are a few open gaps still below.


The Dow Transportation Index was up slightly on Fed day but it is still below those key moving averages.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied to new highs on a big non-rate cut from the Fed and the yield on the 10-year Treasury made a new closing low.  The momentum has been relentless despite strong overbought readings in bonds.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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