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Market Commentary

October 22, 2019

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Stocks started the new week with more impressive gains.  The Dow lagged again because of more weakness in Boeing and IBM, but the broader indices were up with the Transports (+1.36%), the Nasdaq, and the small caps, particularly the Russell 2000, leading on the upside.  Bonds were down as yields seem to be trying to put in a bottom.

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It is earnings season and we're still in October so there could still be some surprises to shake things up, but the VIX (volatility index) has been holding below 15 and the 200-day EMA for the last week or so meaning investors are not expecting stocks to be in any serious trouble in the short-term, but it's not low enough to be considered complacent. 

        


Complacency may start creeping in when we see 12 or lower, but it isn't uncommon for this to get relatively low when we start trading around the holidays.  Last year was a rare exception of course, as it was a rocky 4th quarter for stocks.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) is inching closer to the September and July highs.  The double top did not work out so well, so will a third attempt at 3030 be the charm?  And if it is, does that mean the open gap near 2950 won't get filled any time soon?

        


The S-fund had a good yesterday but it did fade off its highs of the day, and although I didn't mark it on the chart, it did open a new small open gap below 1400, and of course there's still that large open gap near 1370.  1385 - 1390 looks to be the key support levels right now.

       


The Dow Transportation Index filled an overhead gap yesterday while leading on the upside.  Like the small caps, it did fade a bit and close off the highs.  It has come a long way in a short amount of time as it eyes the top of the trading range that it has been in for months.
 
        


The EFA (I-fund) poked it's head above the June high but couldn't quite hold a breakout, although it has made a new higher high after a higher low earlier in October.  A small gap was opened at yesterday's opening and it looks like support near 66 is the barrier that must hold or it will risk filling that open gap near 64.50.  The German DAX did make a new high yesterday and so the strongest economy in Europe is trying to lead the way higher.

        


The XLF Financial ETF had a big day yesterday and flirted with a new high but it tested some resistance and held.  This may be the precursor to what happens to the S&P 500, which is close to the same situation.

       


AGG (bonds) was down moderately yesterday and at the brink of make or break support.  It closed below the 50-day EMA and that looks like a bear flag to me, so bond investors need to be careful here.

      


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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