TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk
For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus


Market Commentary

April 15, 2021
 
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)


It was another rotational day for stocks yesterday as the indices were mixed yet again.  We saw early gains fade and some indices did well while others suffered.  The Dow gained 54-points, which was almost 200-points off the highs, and the Nasdaq lost 1% (1.3% on the Naz 100.)  On the other hand the small caps of the Russell 2000 rebounded after a week or so of pulling back.

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 

 

The market continues to hold up, but the rotation continues, so one day the S&P 500 leads on the upside and maybe small caps are down, and the next day small caps are up and large tech is getting hit hard.  In a way that's bullish in that investors keep looking for a place to put money rather then just sell everything and go into hiding. 

Of course you can look at it the other way and say there isn't enough interest in the broader market to lift all boats.  Has sentiment gotten so extreme that no one is left to keep buying?  The theory goes that stocks tend to peak when everybody is bullish, because there's no one left to buy.  Everyone is in already, and the drying could be drying up.

But most of the indices are at or close to all time highs, and it's hard to argue with success.  The question is, have the main concerns for 2021 been priced in and addressed by the market?  That is, the risk of inflation, interest rate and yield hikes, and the fact that taxes are likely to be raised on corporations and some individuals?  These are not minor considerations.  Taxes and rates are everything to the market, so keep that in mind when you see new highs in the indices.

Yesterday the internals were actually better than the indices indicated with the NYSE having a 2 to 1 advancing volume over declining, and that was because the companies that get the most attention, large tech, got clobbered yesterday, so it was the Nasdaq that saw the more negative breadth.

The dollar was down, as were bonds and the F-fund with yields pushing up slightly.

Small caps did well because two catalysts for the Russell 2000 are oil refinery companies, and small regional banks, and yesterday the price of oil, to my surprise, broke to the UPSIDE of that bear flag I have been concerned about.  I assumed it would break down, as bear flags tend to do.  Also, the first wave of bank earnings reports were solid pushing the XLF up on the day, so again, good for the small banks in the Russell 2000.

            


The midcaps, which have been helping our S-fund avoid some of the Russell 2000's recent losses, lagged yesterday when the S&P and Nasdaq started to rollover, and that's why it was flat on the day.  But as you can see, it had a negative reversal day and a failed breakout at the important resistance line.

          


We did get the IPO of Coinbase as we discussed yesterday, and it did just OK because it closed well off the frenzy high of the day.  And, maybe not surprisingly, bitcoin was down about $1000 yesterday.  Not that bitcoin is necessarily peaking, but some profit taking off the IPO hype is typical.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) backed off from the top of its rising trading channel and it did barely break below that narrow, short trading channel (blue), and that may open the door to an attempt to fill that open gap, although that is a premature call at this point.  The momentum from the bulls may try to prevent that from happening, but it would sure make it an easier area for those looking to buy if we saw a meaningful pullback to repair an over-extended chart.

         


The EFA (I-Fund) broke out above the recent highs, but closed right on that breakout line creating a negative reversal pattern in the process.  The 78 and 77 areas were the key breakout areas on the way up, and they remain as important support now.

          


The Dow Transportation Index has barely blinked since coming off that late January low.  Two and a half months of upside action is getting excessive, and yesterday's action, which was actually a small gain, pushed the index below that support line that has held firmly the whole time - except for two quick dips.

        


BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly and, drum roll please, it remains in that long bearish looking flag for yet another day.  It's been the same story for the last several weeks.

        


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

To get notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too. 

Thanks!

 
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 

Keep Me Informed

Enter e-mail Address:
For Email Marketing you can trust

[more info ]
How to get on the list!

 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does tsptalk.com® assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

Full Disclaimer

Copyright ® 2003 - 2021
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns