TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter Mobile TSP Talk
Search TSP Talk and tsp.gov
TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk
For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar

Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk


Mobile Options

- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App


 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus

Market Commentary

February 19, 2020
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)

Stocks were mixed but mostly lower on Tuesday as the Apple's warning sent the Dow reeling, but it did close well off the lows.  The Nasdaq managed to close in positive territory while our small caps and the Transports were flat.  The S&P 500 was down, as was the I-fund, which has been beaten down by that continued strength in the dollar.

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns


Tech stocks did very well without Apple, and that's why the Nasdaq held up, and even Apple closed well off the lows.  Companies that are not as impacted by China like Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, and Microsoft are getting rewarded.  Apple is such a big part of the Dow, and that is why it lagged the other indices.

The charts of the major indices all look very good.  I just wish we weren't getting mixed signals from other charts that indicate that something may be wrong.  Gold, one of the safety trades, is making 7 year highs.  And that's while the dollar is soaring.


And bond yields are diving again nearing all time lows.  Over the last several months you can see that stocks tend to dip along with yields (while bond prices move higher), but not during this recent rally.  Stocks and bonds (prices) are both near all time highs for some reason.  Yesterday we saw both stocks and bond yields fall (bond prices rally), which makes more sense than what we saw in the first half of February.


There are a few indicators that also have my attention.  Plus the coronavirus is starting to show some impact as we saw Apple fall on a related warning.  So, if stocks keep going higher it's easy to say the index charts look good and they have the momentum.  But if stocks start tumbling, we can't say we haven't been warned.

Oil and copper were both up slightly on the day, which isn't a small thing given the strength in the dollar, but they are both still below their 20-day EMA's and imminent resistance levels.


The Chinese Shanghai blasted through the resistance area that we've been watching, so this is not longer a concern.  I figured U.S. stocks might rollover if the Shanghai Index could not recapture that 200-day EMA, but it did yesterday.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) made a 2nd lower high in two days, and a lower low this time on the daily chart compared to Friday, but like we saw earlier in the month, that makes a mini bull flag.  The last one broke out to the upside so we have a little short-term test on our hands.  It is backing off from what looks like the obvious rising trading channel (red).  There were a couple of small breaks from that channel but they were quickly corrected.


The DWCPF (S-fund) small caps managed to close with a miniscule gain but you can see that there is resistance in the area making any further gains somewhat tougher, although the resistance is rising and there is short term support rising below it.


The Transportation Index also snuck in a small gain but it remained below the 50-day EMA after a failed morning breakout above it.  It looks like a big bear flag to me.


The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply, and again the rally in the dollar was part of the reason.  This time it fell back below the 50-day EMA after trading for nine days above it since the January sell-off.


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) rallied to, and closed at, new highs although it did close off the intraday highs making a possible reversal type pattern.  The breakout in bonds should have given the stock market something to worry about, but not so much for some of the indices.  But if bond yields keep falling and this breakout is for real, I'd have to think stocks will waiver.  


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.  Thanks!

  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Market Commentary Archive

Commentary Archives

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2020
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412

TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns