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Market Commentary

September 17, 2019

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Stocks were down on Monday with the attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia being one of the catalysts for the Dow breaking its 8 day wining streak.  We saw the bulls fight back for much of the day and they were able to close the indices well off the lows, but the market was a little tired after the recent rally and perhaps it needed an excuse to take a day off.  Small caps bucked the trend and had another good day.

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If it wasn't for the attack on the oil fields which sent oil prices higher, I would have expected a couple of quiet days in front of this week's two day FOMC meeting, but instead there was some volatility with some sectors getting hit hard because of their reliance on oil, such as airline stocks, while others did very well if they were related to the energy sector, and that's one reason the small caps did well because of all of the small oil refinery type stocks in the index.

Of course the price of oil did rise sharply, almost 15% on the day, and while higher gas process may be a result in the coming days and weeks, $63 oil is not $100 oil, which would be a bigger deal for consumers.  For the most part investors were trying to shrug off this attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which cuts their oil production in half.  I suppose there is always a chance of another attack so it may not be a closed subject just yet.

A huge gap was created on the oil chart, and in the lower chart you can see that a long-term resistance line was broken dramatically.

        


As I mentioned, the FOMC meeting starts today and we'll get the policy statement and decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon.  The chances for a rate cut according to the Fed Funds Futures has dropped all the way down from 89% to 66% in the last couple of days.  34% now see no rate cut at this month's meeting.  I wonder how the market would react to that?


The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down just modestly on Monday but it did break the recent short-term rising trading channel while creating another "indecisive" spinning top formation.  We're near a double top which can generate pullbacks just as a self-fulfilling prophesy, and I keep looking over our shoulder at that open gap near 2940 that still needs filling.

        


The S-fund had a big day considering the action of the large caps and Transportation stocks, but as I mentioned above, there are a lot of energy related stocks in the small and midcap indices.

       


The Dow Transportation Index was hit hardest by the oil facility attack with airline stocks leading on the downside, but they too rebounded off their lows.  However once again the recent double top gave investors a reason to sell, and that's just typical short-term technical analysis at work.

       


The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply as the dollar rallied and with open gaps all over this chart, it really could move in any direction to do some cleaning up.  It has had a big run up over the last 4+ weeks, and a little breather may not be the worst thing here.

               


The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund rallied to new highs, to my surprise, although if you watch this chart it tends to closely mimic the chart of oil for some reason.  Anyway, new highs here are usually a bullish sign for stocks because it is telling us that the credit market remains strong.  Bubble or not.  :)

        


AGG (bonds) was up on the day after several days of being beaten down.  It remains below the 50-day EMA after failing at an attempt to get back above it yesterday.  There is some rising support at Friday and yesterday's lows, and that's what bond traders will be watching.

      


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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