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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

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Market Commentary

February 22, 2019

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks were lower on Thursday but a late push higher kept the bears from doing any real damage.  The Dow was down 104-points and the losses near 0.4% in the indices yesterday basically took them to break-even on the week.  We've seen some very good Fridays this year so today could be a good test to see if the bulls want to remain in charge, or if the bears have finally grown some teeth.
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We got some lackluster economic data yesterday bringing up some recession concerns again, but overall it has been a fairly quiet week and the bulls are just happy to ride this trend higher - as far as it will take them, while the bears are just hoping this rally is getting overly extended and due for a break.

The S&P 500 / C-fund was down slightly on Thursday but the trend remains up, and the technical picture seems fine unless and until we see some support and / or moving averages break down.  The problem here is, the higher it goes, the harder it falls when it eventually does.


The 2800 area seems to be the latest line in the sand standing in the way of a push toward the old 2018 highs.


The DWCPF / S-fund is getting a little squeezed between support and resistance, and something is going to have to give soon.


The energy sector has been performing well since stocks bottomed in late December, but yesterday's action saw the XLE pull back from the 200-day EMA.  Technically, there are no major issues, so we'll just have to see how stubborn that resistance will turn out to be. 


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was down slightly as the dollar rallied a bit, and this chart is trying to hold onto that 200-day EMA after breaking above it earlier this week.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fell moderately yesterday and broke some rising support, although it is still fairly close to recent highs.  This is just a minor yellow flag for bonds at this point.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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