TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk
For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus


Market Commentary

August 7, 2020
 
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)


Most of the major indices were higher on Thursday after another solid afternoon of trading reversed some morning selling.  The Dow gained 185-points while the Nasdaq was up for a 7th straight day.  But the rally was driven mostly by the large caps as market breadth was actually negative and that tends to mean the Dow Completion Index, or our S-fund, was lagging, and it was.  Bonds were up again.

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 



The stronger than expected initial jobless claims report helped yesterday, as did the travel restrictions being lifted, but the rally wasn't as broad as it had been earlier in the week.

Despite the Nasdaq being up 1%, there were actually more stocks down than up, but you can see that the more highly traded stocks did well by the positive advancing volume.  The NYSE was another story as the number of stocks that were down outnumbers the advancers, and the volume was similar.  That means the broader market didn't do as well as those shiny large cap indices.
          



But the small caps have been having a big week and a day of rest isn't usually a bad thing. 

The weak dollar has been a catalyst in helping stocks remain buoyant and it was down slightly again yesterday.  Today's jobs report could make things interesting if it it strong and causes a rally in the dollar.

        


I apologize for not mentioning the jobs report earlier in the week.  I did post a late update in Thursday's commentary regarding the release of today's report because the estimates at briefing.com are little crazy and that could lead to a potential big reaction in the market.  

The difference between briefing.com's consensus estimate (+2.0 million jobs) and their forecast (+250,000 jobs) is as wide a spread as we've probably all seen in our lifetimes.  Either that's a misprint or this jobs number could be anything within a range of 2 million jobs which is obviously an opening for a dramatic miss or beat, and a potentially wild day on Wall Street.

        


The unemployment rate estimate is about 10.5%.
 


The S&P 500 (C-fund) pushed higher yesterday in front of a very mysterious jobs report, so it felt a little odd that investors were so aggressive with so much uncertainty before today's jobs report.  The small gaps remain open just below - one above resistance and one below.  The Index closed at 3349 and on the upside there seem to be a draw to pull the S&P toward the February high of 3394, so we're close.  Perhaps the jobs report can push it there, but then we have to worry about a double top pullback if it stalls there.

         


The DWCPF (S-fund) was actually down on the day but it was having a great week being up 3.4% coming into Thursday, so a 0.23% dip was nothing.  It's above the old resistance line which we'd look to be potential support on any pullback.  Any close below 1500 would be a major red flag.

        


The EAFE (I-fund) was up but we're just not seeing it do as well as we might expect given the free fall in the dollar recently.  Again the morning weakness in U.S. stocks could be having an impact since these markets close very early.  As I mentioned yesterday, the TSP is doing a good job making adjustments.  For example, the I-fund was up 1.09% on Wednesday when the EFA was only up 0.33%, so the TSP adjusted based on what U.S. stocks did in late trading on Wednesday. 

         


The Dow Transportation Index continued to make another higher high but it did get a bit of a pullback off the intraday high creating a minor negative reversal pattern, but probably not too concerning.  A move back to the breakout area would be normal, but if the jobs report does scare the market that could be vulnerable.  10,000 would be the next support area if that old high does fail.

        


BND (bond ETF / F-fund) rallied.  What else is new?

        


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

Thanks for reading.  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too. 

Thanks!

 
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 

Keep Me Informed

Enter e-mail Address:
For Email Marketing you can trust

[more info ]
How to get on the list!

 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does tsptalk.comŽ assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2020
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns