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Market Commentary

October 30, 2020
 
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Stocks bounced back on Thursday after some strong economic data was released, but there was a late fade heading into the highly anticipated earnings reports after the bell.  The Dow was down 230-points at the lows of the day, and up 370-points at the day's high, and ended somewhere in the middle at +139.  The Nasdaq led on the upside, probably in anticipation of decent numbers from those FAANG stocks, but that turned into a mixed bag.

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Sorry folks.  I have to make this quick.  I was not going to do a report today because I was on the road, and TommyIV (of the weekly wrap up) was going to fill in for me, but he had just moved into a new house and his internet connection was still not working, so I am here to put together a quick commentary.

Of course the day I needed to take off, was one of the biggest news days for the market.  So I'll try to go over it quickly, but I may not have a lot of charts.

First, the GDP came in for the 3rd quarter at +33.1%.  That is unheard of growth, but in 2020 that's par for the course.  And of course we are coming off of the worst 2nd quarter ever where GDP was down over 30%.

The initial jobless claims were lower than expected (which is good), and the continuous claims also dropped a lot more than was anticipated, so the economic data was strong.  What happens when economic data is strong?  Usually bond yields rally, bond prices fall, and stocks tend to do well, and all of that happened yesterday. 

But that was all in front of a massive earnings day where the big five tech stocks, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google (Alphabet), and Twitter all reported yesterday after the bell.

You heard my theory about that earlier in the week, and I won't go into it again, but we see that the futures were tanking after hours, giving back all of Thursday's gains, and then some.

The results were mixed with Twitter tanking 17% after hours, Facebook falling 2.7%, and Google rallying 6%,  but it was Amazon and Apple who got the most attention.  They both beat estimates handily on the top and bottom lines, but they both guided lower for their next quarter.  For Amazon it was COVID costs that they blamed, and Apple blamed uncertainly for the next quarter because of COVID.

Amazon's stock actually rallied over $110 initially on the release of beating estimated, but reversed down about $170 dollars after the guidance for the quarter.  Apple was down over 4% after hours.

So there we have it, and the futures indicate a bad opening for Friday.  As good as Apple and Amazon are, it wouldn't surprise me to see these stocks stabilize quickly and see some dip buyers come it, but we'll see. 

We do have the election next week and COVID cases rising and perhaps the buyers are still in waiting mode.

Some of the charts look better after yesterday, but technically there wasn't too much to brag about.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) opened slightly higher, then fell below Wednesday's lows before stabilizing and rallying most of the day before a fade just before the close.  There's still a large open gap up above near 3380, and that could be target, but the old support like near 3340 may now act as resistance, and the current environment hasn't been one that investors seem overly interested in buying. 

         


BND (F-fund) tanked as yields rose after the strong GDP and employment data came out.

         
 

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Thanks for reading.  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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