TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk
For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus


Market Commentary

August 6, 2020
 
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)


Another day, another rally - and another late push higher to the day's highs.  The Dow gained an impressive 373-points with the help of a big gain in Disney's stock price, but it was actually the small caps of the Russell 2000 (+1.91%) that led the day, helping the S-fund to a gain well over 1%.  The dollar fell sharply again to a lower low, and the market is taking advantage, but how long will / can that divergence last?

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 



The charts look good with many of the major indices hitting new multi-month highs this week.  The Nasdaq's high flying tech stocks had been leading the way but just recently we've seem them step aside and let some others take the lead.  Small caps are one of those "others" but the I-fund is notoriously known to benefit from a weak dollar.  And of course the metals, but obviously the TSP doesn't give us an option to invest in them.  But for you gold bugs, 2020 has been a good year for you.

Here is the UUP dollar ETF and the price of gold moving in opposite directions for the last few months.  The dollar closed at its lowest level since early 2019, and gold hit another all time high yesterday after closing above $2000 an ounce for the first time this week.

          


Does this matter to us?  Basically what is working now is the dollar down, stocks up and at some point that will change, but for now that's the trend.  The dollar will eventually have some sort of a relief rally and I suppose that could lead to a pullback in stocks, but by then they will probably need the rest. 

Meanwhile stimulus and vaccine optimism, plus some overly bearish sentiment from the herd are keeping the bulls happy.  If you're not sure why that sentiment dichotomy makes sense, we talk about it all the time in our TSP Talk Plus Reports

The July jobs report comes out tomorrow.  Estimates are quite interesting.  The difference between briefing.com's consensus estimate and their forecast for the July jobs report is +2.0 million and +250,000 respectively.  That should make for an interesting reaction.
 


The S&P 500 (C-fund) gapped up yet again on Wednesday so that two new open gaps this week.  They're small but they do still tend to get filled eventually.  The difference between Monday's open gap and yesterday's is that yesterday's is above the breakout line, putting Monday's gap below some new potential support.

         


The DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day, also gapping up and above a resistance line, so that could turn into a support line.  We have to be a little careful here because of the possibility of the rising wedge giving us a fake-out to the upside, before a breakdown, which is not uncommon for wedges.

        


The EAFE (I-fund) was up but recently those overseas market have had a tough time keeping up with the U.S. markets because of the choppiness we've seen during the day here.  They like to follow our lead but when their markets are closing, our markets are bouncing up and down.  The TSP usually does a decent job of accounting for that when making their I-fund price for the day.  The EFA did close near the June highs after a nice rebound off of the 200-day simple average (orange.)

         


The Dow Transportation Index broke out as well.  It moved easily above that 10,000 level, and the June highs.  This looks pretty solid and the old resistance line could now be support, joining the rising support line off the lows.

        


The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund made a higher high keeping the stock market happy and content.

          


BND (bond ETF / F-fund) was down but remains within that long, rising, narrow trading channel.

        
 

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too. 

Thanks!

 
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 

Keep Me Informed

Enter e-mail Address:
For Email Marketing you can trust

[more info ]
How to get on the list!

 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does tsptalk.comŽ assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2020
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns