TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter Mobile TSP Talk
Search TSP Talk and tsp.gov
TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk

For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus

Market Commentary

October 23, 2018

Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


Stocks opened higher on Monday, but the Dow and S&P 500 peaked at the the open and from there it was a battle between dip buyers and rally sellers, and by the close the rally sellers won out again.  The losses were moderate for the large caps losing about a half of a percent (Dow -127), while the technology sector had a strong day and allowed the Nasdaq to close up on the day.  Small caps gave up some early gains and did relatively well compared to the large caps, but still suffered a small loss.
 
Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 


If you have been reading these commentary pages over the last week or two then you probably know the deal.  I don't want to get too into the weeds as I have been because right now I'm in the camp that the market is trying to create a low.  It could be a short-term low, or something more serious, but the indices look ready for some relief.  That doesn't mean there won't be another capitulation like sell-off, but we'll take a look at the 2018 chart of the S&P 500 and you'll see that we're just waiting for the consolidation to reconcile.

As for seasonality, this week has a below average bias, but next week gets better.



The S&P 500 / C-fund for 2018 shows a handful of meaningful lows.  The "V" bottom in February took the perma-bulls by surprise and set up a big rebound that later came back to test the lows.  But it's the other three lows that we have been watching with the consolidations that occur while forming the low.  That seems to be what we are in right now and it is just going to take time to resolve itself. 

   

The red arrows above indicate the lows during the forming of the bottoms, but notice in the first three that the one spike lower in each is not at the beginning of the consolidation, but rather in the middle or toward the end.  So, the spike lower earlier this month could be the low, it felt like a capitulation, but it came early and we may need another day like that before this is over.

If it does happen again it will not be fun if you are in stocks, but like I said the low earlier this month may have been it.  That may have already been the punctuation on this leg down, but I won't be surprised if there's one more.

Sure, we could be starting a bear market, but relief rallies are part of the process, even in a bear market.

OK, let's quickly go through the other fund charts and make this quick today, otherwise I may find a reason to go against what I feel is the simplest outlook.  I have outsmarted my self before by over analyzing.


The DWCPF (S-fund) is very close to testing its recent lows.  Typical behavior.  The question is whether it needs another washout sell-off with an intraday reversal in order to create a bottom.

       
 

The Dow Transportation Index is also testing recent lows.  It had a nice reversal day going yesterday before some late selling took it off the highs.

       


The EAFE Index also touched the early October lows and held.  Precarious, yes.  This one is a little more vulnerable because of the weakness overseas, but none the less probably oversold.

       


AGG (bonds / F-fund) is also heading down again looking at the early October lows.  This is a bad looking chart but we've known this for a while since bond yields and interest rates are trending higher.

     
 

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.  Thanks!
 

  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 
 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2018
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., P.O. Box 13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns