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Sentiment Survey |
How the system works:
The surveys are posted on the site, and emailed out, each Thursday, and the final ratio is posted here each Friday morning (see data below).
The System uses different rules depending on whether the S&P 500 is in a Bull Market or a Bear Market, based on the position of the 50-day EMA in relation to the 200-day EMA on the S&P 500.
The theory being that if the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, we will consider the S&P 500 to be in a bull market. If the 50 is below the 200, we'll consider it to be a bear market.
In a bull market, when the Ratio is:
2.00 and higher, it tends to be bearish (sell)
1.25 or less, it tends to be bullish (buy)
In a bear market, when the Ratio is:
1.00 and higher, it tends to be bearish (sell)
0.49 or less, it tends to be bullish (buy)
Bull Market Rules:
If the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the S&P 500 is above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), we will use these bull market ratios.
When the Bulls to Bears Ratio is:
2.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal. The system goes to 100% G for the following week, until a new buy signal is given.
1.25 or less, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal. The system goes to 100% S for the following week, until a new sell signal is given. Bear Market Rules:
If the 50-day EMA of the S&P 500 is below the 200-day EMA, we will use these bear market ratios:
When the Bulls to Bears Ratio is:
1.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal. The system goes to 100% G for the following week, until a new buy signal is given.
Less than 0.50, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal.
The system goes to 100% C for the following week, until a new sell signal is given.
Thanks,
TSP Talk
To participate in the Sentiment Survey each week
via email and be notified when the system makes an allocation change, please
click here or use the e-mail alert box
above on the right...
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The legal stuff: This system is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We actively trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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