|
|
|
TSP Talk |
SAMPLE
TSP Trader System Supplemental
ETF Trades
Developed by
Trader Fred
|
|
|
|
|
The TSP Trader System's
supplemental information. |
|
ETF Trader Signal
Summary
|
ETF Trader
Allocation for December 31, 2009
|
|
ETF Trader
transactions are assumed to have been executed |
|
by the close of
business on Wednesday December 30, 2009 |
|
ETF
Trader |
Buy |
Hold |
Date |
Price |
Date |
Price |
Stop |
ETF % |
|
GLD#3 |
Buy |
|
30-Dec-09 |
TBD |
TBD |
TBD |
TBD |
0.00% |
|
AGG#1 |
Buy |
|
30-Dec-09 |
TBD |
TBD |
TBD |
TBD |
0.00% |
|
TNA#2 |
|
Hold |
10-Dec-09 |
$37.05 |
(Ongoing) |
$44.64 |
Note (3) |
20.49% |
|
TIP#2 |
|
Hold |
02-Jan-09 |
$97.38 |
(Ongoing) |
$103.83 |
No Stop |
8.52% |
|
SSO#3 |
|
Hold |
23-Dec-09 |
$38.61 |
(Ongoing) |
$39.06 |
Note (3) |
1.17% |
|
SPY#2 |
|
Hold |
24-Jun-09 |
$90.12 |
(Ongoing) |
$112.56 |
No Stop |
24.90% |
|
EWW#3 |
|
Hold |
24-Nov-09 |
$48.11 |
(Ongoing) |
$49.88 |
Note (3) |
3.68% |
|
ETF |
--- |
--- |
TRADES |
%/TRADE |
2009% |
|
|
|
|
SSO |
|
|
36 |
2.25% |
81.12% |
|
|
|
|
TNA |
|
|
16 |
3.80% |
60.81% |
|
|
|
|
SPY |
|
|
9 |
3.86% |
34.71% |
|
|
|
|
VXF |
|
|
18 |
1.71% |
30.76% |
|
|
|
|
EFA |
|
|
9 |
1.15% |
10.32% |
|
|
|
|
TIP |
|
|
11 |
0.85% |
9.39% |
|
|
|
|
EWW |
|
|
17 |
0.54% |
9.10% |
|
|
|
|
GLD |
|
|
22 |
0.15% |
3.39% |
|
|
|
|
AGG |
|
|
10 |
0.10% |
0.97% |
|
|
|
|
DOG |
|
|
1 |
-1.27% |
-1.27% |
|
|
|
|
TLT |
|
|
3 |
-0.64% |
-1.92% |
|
|
|
|
SDS |
|
|
8 |
-0.39% |
-3.09% |
|
|
|
|
EFU |
|
|
1 |
-3.32% |
-3.32% |
|
|
|
|
SH |
|
|
1 |
-4.37% |
-4.37% |
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Buy in Price
and Stop Price are the final daily closing price after 8pm EST. |
|
(2) Stop is when
SSO is at or below $30.64 on the final daily close. |
|
(3) Stop Price is
dependent of several market values. Final stop generally ends up
being a couple of percent or so below the Buy Price. |
|
(4) Stop is when
the S&P 500 Index is at or below 1096.85. |
|
(5) Stop is when
the F Fund is at or below $13.21 |
|
N/A = No signals
given; MM = Money market fund; TBD = To Be Determined at some
future date. |
All information is provided "as is" for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes or advice. TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred are not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions you take in reliance on the information contained herein. The user of the information contained in the TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred sites assumes the entire risk of any use made of the information and data. None of the information on TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred sites is a recommendation to buy or sell any ETF or the endorsement of any particular trading strategy. The information on the TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred sites is not intended to constitute investment advice or be a recommendation to make or not make any investment decision. None of the information the TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred sites should be used for that purpose at any time under any circumstances.
ETFs may not be suitable for all investors.
Some of the ones used in the Trader Fred ETF system are
ETFs that go inverse to index the ETF is based on. Some of the ETFs are multiples of the underlying securities and derivatives.
These inverse
ETFs and multiple
ETFs clearly have significantly greater investment risks including
but not limited to increased volatility due to short sales of the underlying securities and derivatives. The ETF’s use of futures, options and swap agreements clearly expose you to significant additional investment risks you would not experience if you had invested instead directly in the underlying securities.
ETFs and especially inverse
ETFs and ETF multipliers are subject to (1) active trading; (2)
tracking error risks; (3) increased volatility;(4) reduction in investment objective success and finally (5) decreased performance of the underlying securities and derivatives.
ETFs are (1) not deposits; (2) are not bank obligations; (3) have no
bank guarantees and finally (4) are not insured by the FDIC or similar agencies.
There are no assurances any ETF will achieve its objectives and/or strategy.
Historical data and back testing should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance, return on investment, future market behavior or future individual retirement account gains or losses. All ETFs involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the
principal amount invested. There are no guarantees in the stock or bond market. TSP Talk.com and Trader Fred do not imply guarantees or assurances of future market or ETF performance in their daily updates.
TSP Talk.com or Trade Fred will have no liability to any person or group for any damages with respect to your use or misuse of the information on the TSP Talk.com or Trade Fred sites. You agree to hold harmless TSP Talk.com and Trade Fred from any and all similar (1) claims, (2) costs, (3) damages, (4) economic losses, (5) expenses, (6) liabilities, (7) losses, (8) lost profits, (9) lost revenues. Further, you agree to promptly pay without further litigation 100 percent of all reasonable attorney and expert fees. You agree to defend and indemnify TSP Talk.com or Trade Fred for the foregoing items (1) to (9) at your own expense whether (1) consequential, (2) direct, (3) incidental, (4) indirect, (5) punitive, (6) special, and/or if you have received (7) prior notification and/or online advisement, such as this Disclaimer, of the possibility for such damages. And finally, you shall not assist by any means any third party in order to legally avoid the foregoing items: (1) to (9) and (1) to (7). By accessing the TSP Talk.com and/or Trader Fred sites, you agree not to redistribute the information found on them. Your membership payments to TSP Talk.com are the automatic and voluntary monetary proof of your complete agreement with, to and for all the terms stated in this Disclaimer.
The possibility always exists a submodel trade may not be profitable. Investing in the stock market is gambling, as past performance does not guarantee future performance.
|
To sign up to receive email
alerts when the TSP Trader System's signals change, go to the
email alert page.
|
| |
|
More on The TSP Trader System: |
|
More on The TSP Trader System,
taken from a late December Daily Market Commentary:
... "Trader Fred" will not be giving
us the system. He will be telling us when we have a buy or a sell signal.
It's kind of like taking an indicator like the ARMS index. We don't need
to know exactly how each measurement is determined. We just need to know
what the market tends to do at specific levels of the indicator. That's
what we'll be getting here. But it is based on more than just one piece of
market data.
Trader Fred will run his programs each night using that day's data, and the
output will tell him whether the system is on a buy or sell signal.
A quick and simple overview shows us that there are 8 separate short-term
trading models, each based on certain market criteria. If any one of
those 8 models is on a buy signal, then the system (labeled the long-term
trading model below) is on a buy signal. If all 8 go to a sell signal,
then the system goes into a sell signal.
In the example below, which is tough to see, The A, D, E, and F sub-models
all had a buy signal at one point which put the entire system into buy mode
(the black bars). Those are dates on the left of those black bars.
You can see that there were a couple of points where there is a gap in the
black bar and that is because none of the 8 sub-models were giving a buy
signal. That would be a time to sell. But once one sub-model
gives a buy signal, it's back to a buy for the system, and for us.
That doesn't tell you too much and I may be oversimplifying the explanation,
but that is the gist of what we will be seeing.
The system has been on a buy signal since early August of this year.
That would have equated to a 10.8% gain if you used a 100% C fund allocation
during that time. (More on allocations later.) The other day
Trader Fred had told me that it looked like we would be getting a sell
signal by the end of the week, but the last two days' activity set another
one of the sub-models (sub-model J) into a buy mode so the system remains
on a buy signal.
Oh, how I was hoping it would give that sell signal because you know I don't
want to be a buyer with the market up this high. Perhaps a sell off in
the next couple of days will put us both on the same page.
What you do with the buy signal is basically up to you. More
conservative investors may never want to go to a 100% stock allocation, while
aggressive investors / traders may want to move all their chips into one
stock fund. Not surprisingly, the back testing has proven that using
100% S fund on a buy signal and 100% G fund on a sell has shown the best
results. That may not always be the case and that may be where we have
to use some analytical information. Trader Fred is working on tweaking
the system to generate an optimal allocation. But to reiterate,
your own situation should determine the amount of risk you wish to take.
As an example of the type of returns the system has been seeing (and again
this is back testing and back tested results always seem to be a best case
scenario since they are designed around past data) the system generated a
return 2.5 times that of a buy and hold of the C fund since July 2003.
That is when share data was first introduced. And, very importantly,
you would have only been in the market 68% of the time. That
means about a third of the time you would have been safely in the G fund, as
opposed to a 100% C fund buy and hold allocation where your account is at risk
100% of the time.
We will begin monitoring the returns of the system for tracking
purposes on
the first day of January 2007. The signal will be determined by the program
each evening and Trader Fred will then pass the info along to me. I
will then update the site with that information in the following morning's
market comments.
- One of our readers made an interesting point, asking if there was a
"hold" signal rather than a buy or sell signal. That is a great
question. The over-simplified answer is that the system is either
on a buy (in stocks) or a sell (in the G fund). But the buy
signal, once given, really turn into a "hold" signal because you may
have missed the optimal buy point. We started offering the system
signals here earlier this month, five months into a buy signal, so the
buy signal is not very strong at all at that point, which we have
stressed.
I posed the question to Trader Fred and here is his response:
"The Buy signal means to go from the G Fund
to some combination of the C, S, I Funds the very first day the Buy
signal is listed on the TSP Talk web site. The official trade is entered
only on the first day the Buy signal is listed on the web site and not
on any subsequent days. After that first day, the trade enters its Hold
mode until a Sell signal is given to exit that trade and return to the G
Fund. The trade is always exited on the very first day the Sell signal
is listed on the TSP Talk web site. Exiting the trade after the specific
Sell day has passed nearly always yields completely
unpredictable and possibly catastrophic results.
"Since we never really know in advance, the
duration of a Buy or Sell signal, for each trade there is officially
only one day to Buy into some combination of the C, S, I Funds and only
one day to Sell those C, S, I Funds and return back to the G Fund.
Outside of those trade dates, the results are unpredictable."
Read about
System
Stop Loss Analysis |
Relative Strength
Trends
The
preceding information is for educational purposes only. The % allocations are broad based opinions of
the TSP Trader Fred Trading System and are not specific for any individual. Risk tolerance and time horizon may vary and subscribers should consult their personal advisors to develop a plan, custom tailored for their unique situation.
|
|
