Thread: Will you participate in a premium service?

As a first time premium subscriber I have wondered if it was 'just me' that wondered if it was worth paying for investment advice. I know I followed Ebb, before it became a premium service, and then saw his advice falter after becoming a premium service. I expressed the same concern to IT. Now, I am stuck with a huge loss on TNA, so yeah, some of this might be construed as sour grapes. But, when you are charging for your advice, you open yourself up to more scrutiny.

August 3rd, 2011: Intrepid_Timer's return 4.83% S fund return 0.75%. What, no poll?

July 29th 2011, TNA/TZA YTD return: 16.86% DZK/DPK YTD return: 55.12% FAS/FAZ YTD return: 42.50%

Didn't see a poll then either...............

Every trade has risks involved. One needs to determine if it is worth the risk or if they should just sit in the G fund or buy-and-hold the C,S or I funds. Some are not going to be happy no matter what.

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer

August 3rd, 2011: Intrepid_Timer's return 4.83% S fund return 0.75%. What, no poll?

July 29th 2011, TNA/TZA YTD return: 16.86% DZK/DPK YTD return: 55.12% FAS/FAZ YTD return: 42.50%

Didn't see a poll then either...............

Every trade has risks involved. One needs to determine if it is worth the risk or if they should just sit in the G fund or buy-and-hold the C,S or I funds. Some are not going to be happy no matter what.

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

If you want to go back and pick and choose your timeframes that's fine. The fact of the matter is, here and now, your July 26th buy signal put some people in TNA at $80+. Fortunately I was right to question that move, as TNA has touched $45 for a $35/share loss. That works out to a 44%, or more, loss. There's no positive spin that can be put on that kind of carnage.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

As a first time premium subscriber I have wondered if it was 'just me' that wondered if it was worth paying for investment advice. I know I followed Ebb, before it became a premium service, and then saw his advice falter after becoming a premium service. I expressed the same concern to IT. Now, I am stuck with a huge loss on TNA, so yeah, some of this might be construed as sour grapes. But, when you are charging for your advice, you open yourself up to more scrutiny.

At first, I followed the Sentiment Survey and did pretty well. However, it has dropped to about -5% as of Friday. It does well as long as we don't have "monkey wrenches" thrown in. I now use I_T and Sentiment Survey to make my trades. I was +7% YTD until the recent downward spiral. I think it is good to look at more than one system to make up your mind. My 2 cents worth. Oh yeah, $20/month is nothing if it makes you money.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

If you want to go back and pick and choose your timeframes that's fine. The fact of the matter is, here and now, your July 26th buy signal put some people in TNA at $80+. Fortunately I was right to question that move, as TNA has touched $45 for a $35/share loss. That works out to a 44%, or more, loss. There's no positive spin that can be put on that kind of carnage.

I'm not putting timeframes on anything, you are by posting this poll now. That's all I'm getting at. The four trades prior to that wrong signal on my part were up 49%.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

As I told you via PM this isn't just about your service. I have co-workers equally fed up with the pay for services they use. TV and radio gurus have been caught by suprise too.

I agree that there seems to be something to effectiveness of a system when many people jump on board. I read about this phenomenon but thought with our small community it would not work that way, but it does seem to be the case.

Fear and greed play a big role because people will jump on a system because it is "the hot hand", and they are quick to cancel once the system inevitably hits a cold patch. Then the cycle starts over (usually). This almost guarantees under-performing for the system follower.

A service like Trader Fred has a decent following and a great track record but because he is not aggressive and doesn't have big flashy short-term returns like an Ebb or I_T system can provide during good streaks, his membership counts have remained steady rather than fluctuate. He has a pretty loyal following.

My point is, the "fed up" subscribers are probably expecting something that is unrealistic, and / or they are not willing to accept the inevitable draw downs of a system. During weak periods, they believe their "guesses" and predictions are just as good. I am guilty of this myself.

If you ever did any serious gambling in a casino you know that the house has an advantage and in the long run they will get their X% of return on the total amount being waged, depending on the game, and it is not a huge percentage.

Inevitably, and occasionally, a gambler has a streak of luck and takes the casino for a big chunk of money. The casino does not shut their doors because someone beat the odds. Instead they try to keep that gambler around because they know that gambler is likely to give it back, because that's what the odds say.

So, if a system has some kind of a small advantage on the market, it doesn't mean it will beat the market every day, every month, or even every year. But if there is an advantage, it will make more money in the long run than someone who does not follow a system that has an edge. Those who close the casino doors every time the market beats them won't be around when the gambler comes back in to give back his lucky winnings.

So, if someone wants to follow a system because it is hot and has big numbers in the short term, they are not likely to be around after things get cold. Ironically, that usually means the system is about to start another strong period. That has just been one of the great learning experiences I have had over the last several years.

This isn't a promo, but rather an example... Since Trader Fred's System has been around (5 years from 2007-2011) It has a return of +31.75% while the C-fund is down 6.53%. This is phenominal, but because the system has no flashy bells and whistles, the "fed up" subscribers probably didn't get what they really wanted - which is excitement. If they did try Fred's service, they probably cancelled during a period where it missed a rally or something.

These are the same people that will cancel an I_T service during a down period. I have seen it over and over, and like I said, I am guilty of this myself. Some will come back after the next strong period (which they will have missed.)

The real problem is our battle with ourselves. I would have added the Ebb System in the above paragraph, but unfortunately I really believe the TSP limits have made that successful winning system much less effective.

Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer

I'm not putting timeframes on anything, you are by posting this poll now. That's all I'm getting at. The four trades prior to that wrong signal on my part were up 49%.

Yes, I posted the poll now. I have had this feeling for most of the year. This latest mis-step brought my feelings to a head, and I wanted to know if I was alone in this feeling. I can't reiterate enough, that this poll has to do with ALL of the premium services, though I only subscribe to yours, IT.

Maybe I'm to blame? The only time I have followed your TNA/TZA calls have been losing trades.

Regardless of past performance, there is no way to sugar coat the most recent buy signals.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The real problem is our battle with ourselves. I would have added the Ebb System in the above paragraph, but unfortunately I really believe the TSP limits have made that successful winning system much less effective.

So true.

I would have sold the day after the 500pt Dow drop regardless of what anyone else said, since the market didn't rebound appreciably. But, the TSP limits kept me in thinking, if I sell now, I'm out the rest of the month.

Right now staying in might not be the best strategy as the losses are piling up, but if we do rebound the second half of the month, I would be on the sidelines with locked in losses.

Thanks Greg Long, you f'n jackwagon!

Two more cents worth. Any of these systems, Sentiment Survey, I_T....... is better than my system. That is why I use them. If I had my own system that was better, I would use it.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

So true.

I would have sold the day after the 500pt Dow drop regardless of what anyone else said, since the market didn't rebound appreciably. But, the TSP limits kept me in thinking, if I sell now, I'm out the rest of the month.

Right now staying in might not be the best strategy as the losses are piling up, but if we do rebound the second half of the month, I would be on the sidelines with locked in losses.

Thanks Greg Long, you f'n jackwagon!

I'm in the same exact boat. Got in as soon as I could august first. I would have been out August 3rd, cutting my losses after the S&P closed below its 200 EMA and failed to rebound the next day but to lock myself out of a market,with a loss, for an entire month, proved too difficult. Would have missed both of huge down days and has cost me over 14% so far.

From #2 on the tracker to almost flat for the year =(. Although I did meet my primary goal of passing RDJ67 =/

Positon sizing and stops are manditory, if you took a big hit in an actively managed account then something went wrong and that's not IT's fault. All trading systems give false signals, every single one, none are exempt. As for the TSP premium services there is a curse on them, always has been. It's the same curse on many trading systems where backtested data and future data do not yield the same results. Creating a system within the TSP environment is difficult to do in the short-intermediate term so with that you have to accept unforseen risk. I've had two systems give false buys signals over the last month, but this is because these systems are designed for a bull market uptrends, not this crap we are going through now.

I'm not voting in the poll, it's rude to air your dirty laundry in public I wouldn't want one of my systems subjected to the pitch fork mob. If you don't like the service then don't use it.