Tom's comments

**Timer** · 07-19-2004, 03:46 PM

Tom, I really appreciate your commnets. Lot's of food for thought. However, I think we will see consolidation just grind on an on. The market is waiting for the following:

Outcome of the election. Regardless of personal politics, I think Kerry will win narrowly. That will pull the market down at first while it gets to know Kerry. Even if he doesn't win, the market is waiting.

Iraq, so much uncertainty here. The outcome will have huge impacts on the cost of energy.

Until there is more certainty, the market will grind as flat as it has been since late 1/2004.

However, I will hedge this position in case you are right!

**tsptalk** · 07-19-2004, 04:38 PM

Welcome Timer!
So do plan to trade this consolidation (buy lower end andsell the high end of this trading range) or just stick with a more conservative allocation and wait it out?

Regardless of whether what I have been saying will happen, I think we are closeto aplayable bounce that can be taken advantage of. The question then will be if we breakout to a new high or if we just head back down as we have for the past several months.

As much as I hate to lose money and see the market tank, any pain that we endure this week will help set up those ducks I was talking about in the comments. I want to see more fear out there. :shock:

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

**Timer** · 07-19-2004, 07:58 PM

More fear, yes, I understand, as odd as it sounds.

When I say hedge, I am saying that I will jump into stocksat any point when I believe the consolidation is over.

I've been 100% G for preservations for most of 04. I kept trying to make the S and I make me some money as it had in 03 and Jan 04 but gave up. I went 40% G and 60% F today because I think there's some money to be made in bonds in the next 60-90 days. As long as the economy continues to sputter and does notimprove, there's some money to be made inF.

Again, You make a good case and I am waiting for what you say to pan out I believe that that the up bounce is going to happen later than you think. I will watch the course of the consolidation carefully.

After years of buy and hold, I started to time my investements (what TSP tells you NOT to do) around 2000 and just kept making money (what TSP tells you won't happen.)

I am not a fan of C. I tolerate risk well and like S and I better for agressive gains.

Tom, Thanks so much for this site and forum. I've learned a lot and it's great to find kindrid investors out there.

= Timer

**Rolo** · 07-20-2004, 03:10 AM

Timer wrote:

I am not a fan of C. I tolerate risk well and like S and I better for agressive gains.

hehehehehe...I like this guy.

Welcome, Timer!

**Frizz B.** · 07-20-2004, 11:23 PM

Here is my feeling on this market, I would rather stay in a market like this forever, if you would have put yourself in the S fund starting Jan 1, 2004 and when the S fund went over 310 you would change to the G fund and stayed until the S fund went under 270 and kept up this routine, my calculations would have you in the vacinity of a 25% gain for the year and this does not include how many penny gains the G fund would have returned for you. My mistakes is that I have gotten out to early and back in to soon, so my returns are still around 10% for the year. :dude:

**tsptalk** · 07-21-2004, 02:39 AM

Frizz B. wrote:

My mistakes is that I have gotten out to early and back in to soon, so my returns are still around 10% for the year. :dude:

That has been the problem with the market this year (for us traders). The overbought and oversold, and highs and lows went to extremes and it made us sell early and buy too soon, as you said. The indicators were hitting numbers only seen every several years. Like I said, the charts make it look like it should have been easy to trade, but it was very tough.

The 10% you made is very good in this situation. I attribute it to your emotionless trading system. It was the perfect envornment for it. Nice job!

**Mike** · 07-21-2004, 05:32 AM

Why the dislike for the C fund? Look at the returns over the past ten years...

C outperformed S and I in 1995,1996,1997, and 1998. Its 10 year return is also higher than the others.

My point is that you can maximize your gains with any of the funds, provided you put money into them at the proper time.

**Frizz B.** · 07-21-2004, 02:31 PM

Since early Jan. when the market goes up the S fund has continuously outperformed the C fund, and when the market goes down the C Fund losses less than the S fund. This is how the C fund has stayed with the S fund over the last 7 months. Until the C fund starts to outgain the S fund over when the market is going up, I will stay with the S fund. I am still trying to figure when the I fund would be correct, although it has outperformed the S or I over this period. My differential theory says it is to high over the S fund right now, so I am staying in the S fund.:dude:

**Timer** · 07-21-2004, 07:33 PM

I have no argument with the C fund. Since I started in the late '80s, I've made more money in C than any other fund. But the more I know about how the market works, I think I can make more money timing more agressive stock funds. So far, since about 2000, that's panning out.

07-22-2004, 12:49 PM

I agree Frizz, with buy-and-hold strategies, the C may very well out gain the S. But with just a few transactions a year, the S can easily beat the C time and time again.

I'm looking for the I fund to get back around the 13.0 per share area then I'll get back into it also.

With onlly 3-4 transactions this year, I have the C fund up about 6% and the S fund up about 15%. How's buy and hold doing? :^

07-22-2004, 01:04 PM

One more thing and I'll hush my mouth. The volatility of the S fund is what makes it so much better than the C. So far this year I have bought C fund 4 times and S fund 5 times. Giving me the opportunity to make more money.

Look at March. On March 23 I bought the S fund for $12.65. On March 31 I sold the S fund at $13.20. That's a gain of 55 cents or 4.35% in a matter of 7 days. What a beautiful week!