Thread: My two cents, Tom,

Charting isn't my strong suit. :P

Is there a reason why you are focusing on this instead of the S&P? Is this considered a "trend setter" for the overall market?

I see the 50 and 20 both have downward trends right now... we'll know in the next two weeks or so if the 20 has bottomed and is going to reverse course or continue on down...

Of course as I said previously, I'm only making I fund plays in the near term - waiting to see a top on the dollar rally.

Mike,

So goes the NASDAQ so goes the S&P...so I focus on the NASDAQ...the concern is the sharp downward slope of under DMA (just like in July) that we are seeing now...

I fund is a bargain right now...what sucks is having Japan as the largest holding...but what can ya do?

That is the problem with TSP funds...if the NASDAQ sucks then the I fund will suck...the NASDAQ will also drag down the I fund...

I have found if you can figure out the NASDAQ you can nail the other two stock funds...

F fund is a disaster waiting to happen...G fund you do not keep with true inflation and that forces you to go long in stocks...that is my concern with social security reform...they will be TSP funds (managed by a foreign company no less).

Good luck. Great question...but I believe you know more then what you are letting on.

MT

I wanted to confirm my own theory on that.

At $15.30ish, I don't see the I fund as a bargain. I look to buy it in the $15-$15.10 range, which is roughly where a dollar index move to 87 would put it (w/ foreign markets being relatively flat in the meantime... no guarantee of that). With my buys at $15.09 and $15.06, I'll gladly take a ~$15.30 selling price given what the market has been through in the past month. Whether or not I can duplicate this on future movesremains to be seen.

I still don't think we'll see a total flameout here - but "gradual decline within a trading range" is something I am definitely anticipating over the coming months (with a late year surge that'll take us back into a flat to minor positive territory for the year, hopefully). I'll cautiously play these bounces as best I can. I just hope the dollar tops out at a time that corresponds fairly well with a short-term bottom, so I can make money on the movement that comes after... heh.

MarketTimer wrote:

Tom,

Can probably play here however the month long strong dollar rallywill probably make the trade balance report look rather ugly...which has turned into a major market mover as of late...

Moveover this is not a very healthy chart: The last time we had this look was back in July 2004 (and you know how you did that month).

That's my thinking. Make a long play at the oversold conditions trying to pick up a rally but stay cautious and watch the support area. Right now we are actually overbought.

Playing the short term moves is tough so most ofus novicesshould concentrate on the longer term. You make a convincing argument for a longer term bear, I just haven't seen it yet, but I can be swayed when that support starts giving way or if we can't make a new high in the weeks ahead.

I'm not bullish or bearish right now. Just trading.

Good luck!

Tom,

Great. I am glad we are having a health conversation.

What I do not want see people the people on this boarddo is buy into the insider selling. This is 2000 all over again...the greedy bastards are tv saying ALL IS GREAT, ECONOMY IS GREAT...then you see the same day their were pounding their chests they were dumping 1-3% of their holdings...

REMEMBER, REMEMBER. The expensing of stock options starts on 1 JUNE 2005....do you not think they sat down in a little overpiced room and said "WE NEED TO ENSURE WE TAKE AS MUCH OF OURSTOCK OPTIONS PRIOR TO 1 JUNE AS WE CAN"???? Ding, ding...they are going to take all the stock options they can because moving forward stock options will totally go away - sort of like 401Ks....first they did not match...now they are going away...next thing to go away will be options and they do not want to be left holding a couple mil worth...they are dumping hands over fist.

If they get the suckers buying into this then they will be dumping more shares. Which will cause the downturn to be much greater and much faster...

God bless. The only insider you need is me :^. Because I am going to ta ya like they think and like it is.

MT