Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by tsptalk

With Thursday's pre-holiday seasonal strength, and the the fact that the S&P is testing (and so far holding) the lower end of the rising trading channel, I rolled the dice this morning and bought (IFT). Probably the kiss of death for this rally.

THX for sharing your move & reasoning & after-thoughts. I moved more "IN" on 1st new-month IFT chance on a up-day hoping for longer-term overall continuing +slope and April overall seasonality. My TSP only up about 2% since Jan 1st, so I'm hoping current channel holds up. Good luck to us.

This emotional, Monday morning gap down is at a crucial point. If the selling continues and we see a new low in April (solid red line), we can draw in a new downtrend line (red dashed line).

If this morning's lows hold, the downtrend line would not be drawn yet, and we could have a double bottom situation. The afternoon trading will be key.



As we talked about in today's commentary the Monday after option expiration week in April is historically weak, but the rest of the week tends to do better.

For whatever it's worth, in 2011, the first trading day in May marked the intraday high of the year.

The Dow was up 118-points intraday on May 2, 2011 to 12,928, but reversed and closed down 3 on the day to 12,807.

Haven't been reading for a while. Funny you should mention this as a coworker and I are exiting due to our chart concerns. Upper bb rocketing downward, moving averages and seasonality. Go away in May but not too far away.

Interesting how $EMW just touched the top of the bollinger bands today then retreated. Now that's resistence

Interesting roll-over in the market today... topping tail anyone, served up fresh

The Transports are getting pummeled today - down 2.4% and breaking through the 200-day EMA.

The Transports are getting pummeled today - down 2.4% and breaking through the 200-day EMA.

S&P 500 teetering on edge of 200 day EMA at 1314 also ... If it closes below that, next support may be 1290 ???

A nice little bounce today, one many of us thought was overdue. The question is, is this a short-term pop that needs to be sold or could we get at least a 50% retracement of the decline, which would take the S&P up to about 1360?

A sneak peak. I will be posting this chart in tomorrow's commentary...



Oscar likes to talk about holiday reversals. That is, in general the week before the holiday tends to fade the larger trend leading into it, but that ends after the holiday. In this case, this is a holiday rally that may reverse back down next week. But that's not what the chart above is saying, so...

So far this inverted H&S breakout is pulling back in the classic manner... testing the neckline. That would normally hold or we'll get a test of the middle of the head - although a test of the head usually happens before the breakout, so...





OR...