Thread: Here We Go Again, Going Back to G

I Gonna risk a little more:shock:

actual allocation------70-g 10-c 10-s 10-i

tomorrow allocation 50-g 10-c 20-s 20-i

today may be a rally ? I don't know but I go for it.

"JuSt my common sense"if there a rally today

that's telling mestay in the game one more day

:shockossible I'm wrong ! good luck everybody ok.

It's a hard call, especially when everything looks good today. Although the bounce is holding up pretty well so far, a good sign, I am not trusting it just yet.We are so due for this after five days down. I also don't want to be too stubbornso I will see how the morningplays out before making any rash decisions.

I was alsothinking about why the last few days of March wouldhistoricallybe bad (see today's http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)and early April would be strong. The reason I came up with is it's the end of the quarter. Have you heard the term window dressing?Institutional investors (mutual funds, etc.) have to put out their quarterly report so in late March they dumpmany of their underperforming stocks rather than show a bunch of losers in their portfolios. Then they have all this cash to go shopping in early April. Actually the last day in March may start the buying. Makes sense.

Today may be the prop up day. Get the little guys (us) to buy because of this rally, then they come out over the next few days and sell.

I'm still needing some convincing but not to the point of being stubborn. It's early yet.

It is tempting to get in but it would be an emotional move rather than an analytical one. We are fairly oversold in the short term. The question is, how much can we rally from here? Perhaps I am putting too much weight into this seasonality data, but a couple ofthingswould change my mind pretty quickly, a sustained move over 1110 on the S&P 500, and heavy volume with follow through tomorrow.

Thanks Tom for the inf.

Better I move to G and play safe...:shock:

...by the way I tried to changes,but I COULD'T

to bussy or unavailable ,so I have to stay "the same".:shock:

70-g 10-c 10-s 10-i

No problem PR. This may be more than a one day rally. I may bea little too paranoid. We are very over sold. Let's see if volume can pick up later this afternoon. If the rally can sustain itself, the bears will have to cover short positions (buy the stocks they are short) which will send the indices higher. It's kind of a "fake" rally when that happens but it can cause short, explosive up swings.

Also remember that the long term outlook is very aggressive. If you have 30 or 50% in stocks, you are actually being defensive. Today's action looks a lot like March 17th, big up day. But that was followed by 5 down days. The difference could be in volume. The volume was low on March 17th. That is yet to be determined today.

Well I'm glad I didn't gloat about my returns recently as it may be short lived. After being blown away all year, I finally had taken over all of the stock funds.

As over yesterday's close, only the F fund had me beat.

My Return vs G Fund = + 0.13%
My Return vs F Fund = - 2.10%
My Return vs C Fund =+ 2.55%
My Return vs S Fund =+ 0.04%
My Return vs I Fund = + 0.31%
My Return vs Diversified = + 0.19%

I say this today while I can because after the market closes today, the S and I fund should take the lead back.

Still you've done very well this past week to be sitting on the sidelines. As you know I was flying high until I jumped in on Thursday or Friday of last week and took one on the chin. After today I should be well above 4% so I am still doing alright on the year, but this past week I was humbled by the markets as you arefond of saying.

Dave

Going into the last hour of trading, we'll see if buyers take profits or sellers dump short positions. If this is the real deal, I would like to have seen more volume. Today will beprobably come up short of average. Dead cat bounce? Possibly. Watch thevolume and follow through tomorrow for answers.

Wheels,
You have been killing the averages timing things perfectly in Jannuary and February. Did you decide to stay in the stock funds today?

Yes I stayed (halk S and half C). But I agree with you that this wasn't the most convincing bounce. I'd love to see a little follow through tomorrow. Maybe just a little green on heavier volume then I'd be a little more comfortable.

Dave