Transfer 11/16 for 11/17/04

**tsptalk** · 11-16-2004, 02:13 PM

I'm backing off a little more this morning. I'm going 40% G, 60% C fund before today's deadline. It will be effective Wednesday. Yesterday's low was taken out.

This is a "tweak", as I expect to be back in the S fund within days.

Chips · 11-17-2004, 12:12 AM

I went 50g 50c and will wait to see what happens

**Timer** · 11-17-2004, 01:53 AM

I am 40S and 60I now. I know that we will get some dips :shock:but I'm betting on bulls over bears for the next three months or so. Iwon't try to micro time the dips ... not that brave. I like the I, I know there are a lot of 'moving parts' to the I but I think Bush will let the dollar fall and fall.

11-17-2004, 01:57 AM

Tom, after some consideration, I also followed your lead- Sort of. I moved out of the S fund, moved more into I-30%, C-30%, and G-40%. Since I was already vested in I/C/and G, I just reshuffled out of S took a a heavier position in the other funds.

Trusting the market won't forget which way is up.

**tsptalk** · 11-17-2004, 01:59 PM

Small caps seem to be the winners so far this morning. Not good for me being that I am in the C fund (60%). The S&P 500 is up nicely but it hasn't gone over yesterday's high yet so I'm watching that 1184 area this morning. As of now a short term downtrend is still in place.

This is either a fake out that will suck in more money from the herd (which may not be too bad for them in the longer term) before resuming a pullback, or it is another sign of how strong the market is right now. Keep an eye on 1184 on the upside and1175 on the downside for a possible answer.

11-17-2004, 02:09 PM

tsptalk wrote:

Small caps seem to be the winners so far this morning. Not good for me being that I am in the C fund (60%). The S&P 500 is up nicely but it hasn't gone over yesterday's high yet so I'm watching that 1184 area this morning. As of now a short term downtrend is still in place.

This is either a fake out that will suck in more money from the herd (which may not be too bad for them in the longer term) before resuming a pullback, or it is another sign of how strong the market is right now. Keep an eye on 1184 on the upside and1175 on the downside for a possible answer.

Nice for my sell today. We may be in for another of those "up one day, down the next" periods. Look at my spreadsheet, you'll see how to play it.....

**tsptalk** · 11-17-2004, 02:35 PM

tsptalk wrote:

Small caps seem to be the winners so far this morning. Not good for me being that I am in the C fund (60%). The S&P 500 is up nicely but it hasn't gone over yesterday's high yet so I'm watching that 1184 area this morning. As of now a short term downtrend is still in place.

This is either a fake out that will suck in more money from the herd (which may not be too bad for them in the longer term) before resuming a pullback, or it is another sign of how strong the market is right now. Keep an eye on 1184 on the upside and1175 on the downside for a possible answer.

The S&P went above 1184. Tough decision. The market is way overbought but that downtrend was brushed asidepretty easily. Is this a trap or a resumption of the rally?

I really don't believe following the seasonality chart is the best way to plan trades, but today is the 13th trading day in November. It tends to be the up day between two down days (see chart on www.tsptalk.com/comments.html). That said, I think I'll stay put at 40/60 and see what tomorrow brings.

**Rod** · 11-17-2004, 02:42 PM

tsptalk wrote:

Small caps seem to be the winners so far this morning. Not good for me being that I am in the C fund (60%). The S&P 500 is up nicely but it hasn't gone over yesterday's high yet so I'm watching that 1184 area this morning. As of now a short term downtrend is still in place.

This is either a fake out that will suck in more money from the herd (which may not be too bad for them in the longer term) before resuming a pullback, or it is another sign of how strong the market is right now. Keep an eye on 1184 on the upside and1175 on the downside for a possible answer.

The S&P went above 1184. Tough decision. The market is way overbought but that downtrend was brushed asidepretty easily. Is this a trap or a resumption of the rally?

I really don't believe following the seasonality chart is the best way to plan trades, but today is the 13th trading day in November. It tends to be the up day between two down days (see chart on http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html). That said, I think I'll stay put at 40/60 and see what tomorrow brings.

It could be a "trap" because the market is simply reacting to the news of the merger between Sears & K-Mart.