Thread: Transfer 7/26/ for 7/27/04

We lost the opening gains a lot faster than I thought we would. Ugh!

I was amazed too! It wasn't even a good speed bump.

I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.

Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.



DrD

DrD wrote:

I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.

Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.



DrD

Hello DrD, welcome. As you can see with this chart, my system is beating the snot out of buy-and-hold strategies. This is all with only a few moves in and out.

"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls

Good luck!

Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.

In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html

Thanks for joining us,
Tom

Welcome, DrD!

GTO1970 wrote:

I was amazed too! It wasn't even a good speed bump.

baha!

Yeah, when I first saw my gains 20 minutes after the open, I thought, "Oh, this isn't going to last at all."

It's a good thing Scottrade doesn't have a "Sell all holdings" button; I probably would have used it during that speed bump.

Rolo

I like to know more about this Scottrade thing.

Maybe pull a loan out of G. P. TSP and reinvest it

what u :i

GTO

Was there any doubt what would happen in the market today, the day I head for safety? :X It seems like literally a relief rally. Relief that nothing happened at the convention last might.

Don't feel so bad... I'll be 100% F tomorrow along with you. But If I were you, I wouldn't jumpback injust yet.

Who know's what the end of the day may look like.

tsptalk wrote:

Was there any doubt what would happen in the market today, the day I head for safety? :X It seems like literally a relief rally. Relief that nothing happened at the convention last might.

I described my recent move as "hiding during the Democratic Convention." Now I'd like to hide under a rock. Stocks up, bond down.

I told you I'd be a good contrarian indicator. I capitulated at the height of fear and we rebounded. Not too surprising. Frustrating as hell, but not surprising. We may reverse back down tomorrow, we may not. But the long awaited bottom is close at hand.