Thread: Transfer 6/1 for 6/2/04

I had said in today's comments that I will take something off the table if we either have a big morning, or if we see a short term trend change. This is a very short term reading. We did go below Friday's (as well as Thursday's) low this morning and have not gone above their highs *. That is a short term trend change.

The S&P 500 is still trading above the 20 and 50 day moving averages which is bullish. A pullback that takes about half the gains of the prior rally is normal and healthy so a move to about 1100 would be OK with me. If we don't hang on to 1100 it would be a bit of a red flag. As bullish as I am longer term, we still haven't broken out of this downward sloping consolidation formation. But I am pretty confident (uh oh!) we have seen the lows this year.


* I may haven spoken too soon. The market is picking up a little steam here in the last hour of trading (smart money) and we may actually have a chance to go over Friday's high.

Funny thing about pullbacks. When everyone expects one, the market tries to prove you wrong. Once you say, "Maybe we won't get a pullback after all", that'swhen we will get one.

That's the way it goes. It takes years of frustration to figure out this stuffon your own. You just have to learn to think the opposite of "the herd". That usually means going against your instincts. (Reminds me of a Seinfeld episode. It worked for George).

Tom

tsptalk wrote:

* I may haven spoken too soon. The market is picking up a little steam here in the last hour of trading (smart money) and we may actually have a chance to go over Friday's high.

Well, we fell just short of making a new high so technically we have gone to a short term down trend. That doesn't mean it won't be broken and go up on Wednesday. Watch 1122.56 on the S&P 500 Wednesday to see if the market wants to continue up or if it's ready to take a breather. That was Tuesday's high.

A couple of these 'go nowhere' days may be all we need toalleviate the overbought conditions. That would be the best case scenario for those of us who have money in the stock funds. A nice, modest1% drop could satisfy everyone.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex




I'm not really shure

euro vs dollar

The chart is up ,that means I fund pay betterdivident today ?

evenS-fund sometimes benefit too.

I do this question becouseI see sometimes when the

market was up a little bid but the dividentwere negative

becouse the dollar was up.

So the dollar down, pay a little more divident today

right or wrong

I'm not really shure euro vs dollar The chart is up ,that means I fund pay better divident today ?

Yes. The dollar was down again. I see the EAFE was down .43% but the I fund will probably be up slightly because of the dollar's weakness.

even S-fund sometimes benefit too. I do this question becouse I see sometimes when the market was up a little bid but the divident were negative becouse the dollar was up. So the dollar down, pay a little more divident today

The S fund should do what the Wilshire 4500 index does. As opposedto the I fund which may or may not do what the EAFE index doesn (because of the dollar).

TheU.S. markets' strength or weakness can be a result of the dollar (because the dollar moves based on the U.S. economy) but the tracking indices (S&P 500 for C, Wilshire 4500 for S) should match the fund's performances.

Does that make sense? :*It's a little confusing.

Tom

Would tracking EFA (iShares EAFE index ETF) take the dollar into account? I am thinking it does.

Yes. It appears to. You can see that difference between the EFA and ^EFV today.

tsptalk wrote:

* I may haven spoken too soon. The market is picking up a little steam here in the last hour of trading (smart money) and we may actually have a chance to go over Friday's high.

D'oooooooh! Yup, stupid last hour rush! I sold two of my stocks today; I wish I hadn't. <-- (add the mopey "fat lip" to that)



tsptalk wrote:

That's the way it goes. It takes years of frustration to figure out this stuffon your own.

Rolo's Frustration Index had a huge intraday spike today...



tsptalk wrote:

You just have to learn to think the opposite of "the herd". That usually means going against your instincts.

This is strange. This is the umpteeth time that my instincts were right and I analysed myself right out of them and missed gains as a result. I always do this when I am watching it real-time. I need to watch, but not touch. Grrr.

I need to just use The Force, heh.

Rolo wrote:

This is strange. This is the umpteeth time that my instincts were right and I analysed myself right out of them and missed gains as a result. I always do this when I am watching it real-time. I need to watch, but not touch. Grrr.

I need to just use The Force, heh.

:l

There is a reason I don't day trade stocks any more. You are bringing back memories.

tsptalk wrote:

:l

There is a reason I don't day trade stocks any more. You are bringing back memories.

hehehehe...Ya, not to mention it was a big waste of time, so I think I will just stick to my e-mail alerting me when something goes terribly wrong.

Now I don't know what to buy! I should have been screening stocks instead!

This tuition to the School of Hard Knocks better pay off one day.

The numbers for todays

June 01, 2004
G---10.41
F---9.92
C---11.82
S---12.92
I---13.15

May 28, 2004
G---10.41
F---9.94
C---11.82
S---12.87
I---13.17


C-fund stay put in 11.82 for the 3rd day-:?

I-fund down two pennys:shock:

S-fund -the only winner