Thread: Interfund Transfer 9/02 for 9/06/05

Not that I rub shoulders with Wall Street gurus, but many of the market timers that I have come to respect over the years are doing a lot of what I'm doing... shaking their heads in almost disbelief. What is triggering this strength?

The market is doing what it is doing and I guess I should respect that. The fact that many people, and some very smart people, are missing this rally may be the reason it is going up.As the market slowly sucks in the bears, it is feeding the beast. It's one of those, when too many peopleexpect the market to do one thing, it is likely to do the other. The market will turn down when the feeding stops.

I am concerned that when the feeding does stop the market will fall hard (maybe not too far, but fast and hard). So the fact that we have the one to two day delaybrings with it the fear that we (I) will get it at the exact wrong time.

The monster is being fed so I will eat crow for a while and let it eat. I'm still looking for a better opportunity to get in rather than chase. It seems like the right thing to do. I'm trying to be patient but it's getting tougher.

Tom

Tom,

Whats it about 48% bullish now.

U kno. U could just about time it:
8-30 8-31 9-1 9-2 9-6 9-7 9-8 9-9 9-12 9-13
:{ :} :{ :{ :} :} :{ :}

I don't know if I want to be in week after next when the Cartel Creature yaks!
Unless something un-forseen comes up I may set out the 19th and 20th :zz

Maybe we should have a pole. :I Will the Cartel raise rates: Yes or No?


Rgds! Spaf

I dont know much about the market timing thing but I know that i have almost doubled my money in one year. i keep a birds eye view on it and yes I twich and get nervous because its so sporatic but it does seem to reach for higher highs. I know it will fall soon and I will bail out as soon as I see the slightest trend downward. the markets seem to be defying the history charts. I read your articles everyday and watch the show before the opening bell.. I dont always follow your lead, but probably it would be a smart thing to do. Pray for a good years end.

Dakota wrote:

I read your articles everyday and watch the show before the opening bell.. I dont always follow your lead, but probably it would be a smart thing to do. Pray for a good years end.

I sure have noticed that a lot of people using the info I provide, have had more success in their accountsthan I have had. And that is great!

I admit my approach has gotten more conservative now that memberships are into the thousands. I used to gamble a lot more. My focus has been more on making sure people don't lose money and that has led tous making less money than we could have. It's a trade off.

I am sure I will be getting more aggressive as soon as we get past this uncertain period.

Good luck and congratulations on your success Dakota.

Tom

"I admit my approach has gotten more conservative now that memberships are into the thousands. I used to gamble a lot more."

<soapbox on>

I hope that you are not taking on the burden of leading thousands because of the membership numbers. Don't play any more conservatively than you would if it was just you and your money. There is no reason for you to take on ethical inertia in your approach based on promises that you have made to nobody and specifically disavow in your disclaimer.

I am very grateful that this site exists, and in no way have any expectations how my returns will be based on how you analyze things. Your disclaimer is Lima-Charlie. Everytime you say that you are getting nasty emails, I wince that somebody can't see what this site is for what it is, and think that you 'owe'them something. Thank you Tom, and thanks to the folks who participate and help us all learn something.

But you, Tom, you are the man. Those who disagree can certainly start the "TSPChat" website at any time. :^

<soapbox off>

re: soapbox:

Totally agree - When I first started reading this site, my understanding was that `it's a bunch of folk who wanted to share what they were doing, & see what others were doing & why.'

also, Tom, if you are curtailing your moves d/t above listed reasons, the board sees what you are doing; do we see what you would do if you weren't being watched??

Which is what we want to know !!

grandma wrote:

Tom, if you are curtailing your moves d/t above listed reasons, the board sees what you are doing; do we see what you would do if you weren't being watched??

Which is what we want to know !!

Thanks citizen and grandma.

To answer your question, you get exactly what I actually do and my moves are definitely affected because of the exposure... for a fewreasons:

1) I have to make up my mind much earlier than the deadline. Since I discipline myself to make sure I update the message board and send out the email alert before I make my move, I usually have to make up my mind AT LEAST a half hour before the deadline, and usually much earlier since I can't do this from work.

2) I knowmany email alert recipients do not get the emails as soon as I send them. Some onlysee them after they get home from work etc. Some people try to follow my moves and if I were to bounce around more they'd be playing catch up. In my old days Imight havemoved to stocks one day and back to cash the next. These people would be a day or two behind being in stocks when I'm in cash etc. andit would likelybe frustrating forthem, even if I was doing the wrong thing.

3) I think more longer term now because things change so quickly in the short term. I could pound the table one day that we should see a rally in a day two, then the next day everything changes. I'd appear skitzo. That's not a great way to manage an account where there is a one to two day delay in transactions.

Tom