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Thread: Transfer 4/28/04 for 4/29/04

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    tsptalk's Avatar
    tsptalk is online now Moderator
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    Like a frightened school girl, I am initiating a transfer this morning, getting out of my 35% S fund position. My new allocation tomorrow will be 60% G, 40% F.

    As I have been mentioning, these calm, go nowhere periods tend to precede a major move. Today's weakness and the"Hindenburg Omen" signalis enough for me to go running again.

    The theory is that a great deal of uncertainty in the market, characterized by a large number of new highs and new lows at the same time, occurs before major market meltdowns.Make of it what you will.


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    Mr. Duke is offline TSP Talker
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    Will probably make a move back into the market tonight...Been waiting a couple of weeks....Probably won't take effect until Friday ....Not sure about tomorrow...could be another panic day of sell offs or buying the lower prices...

    Then Friday comes....If Thursday is bad maybe folks won't want to be in the market over the weekend...Or maybe after two bad days of sell offs maybe Friday will be a buy day.... coin flip!

    pros:

    1st days of the month have seemed to be gainers the last couple of months

    We have lost enough in C , S, & I to allow room for a 1-2% gain

    cons:

    Market trends are poor.... S & I have had more down days then up days ...C fund is more positive with 11 up and only 8 down...C (large cap) should do better during rate hikes...Small caps have made a solid run.... maybe 50-50 S & I

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    Mr. Duke is offline TSP Talker
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    :shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:I'M in 100% I-fund effective Friday:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:

    :shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:





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    zarth is offline Rookie
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    Hey Duke -- No worries -- I'll be riding it out with ya!!:^ I'm a bit more spread out over the funds...but after the beating I've taken recently (especially today),:h figured I'd better just buckle down and hold tight until this one swingsbackthe other way.

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    Be careful out there.

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    Frizz B. is offline TSP Talker
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    I'm with you Duke, my #'s say it is time to get back to the S fund for me. Will make the change if we are close to even or lower tommorrow morning before the 11 am Central time zone. May go a little lower but the #'s say it will come back with a vengence, I wait it out till I go ahead and then make the move again.

    FrizzB.

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    Mr. Duke is offline TSP Talker
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    I have no access to a computer during the day...So I'm in after hours or before 6 am. Futures are looking down this morning .....Another bad day will hopefully set up a buy for Friday............:^ going for the gusto.....

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    CJ
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    I think the C and S will drop 1 more percent before rising again.

    By compairing these fundpercentages to the steady G fund, Ihave been noticing a down ward trend with C and S (not the I fund), and I see both C& Sat their last low, so I expect 1 more downward percent. The I fund may not go down another percent, but tends to dop some after a bad US market day.

    CJ

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    Mr. Duke is offline TSP Talker
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    CJ you were dead on the money....YeeeHaaaa it is getting pretty sporty out here now....
    FrizzB show time tomorrow.............

    C fund dropped .93 % today

    S fund dropped 1.46% today

    I fund dropped .30% today

    Hereis the April running tally ....It ain't pretty!


    [align=left]APRIL 2004
    F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND

    BBF %% 0.69 -1.5 .380.6
    MTD% CHANGE -2.73% -0.93% -3.03% -2.16%
    MTD$ CHANGE -0.28-0.11 -0.40 -0.29 [/align]


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    Frizz B. is offline TSP Talker
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    Yea, hopefully showtime for the S fund. I did move mine to the S fund this morning. Differential was at 298 and by trade time, wow what a drop. Now I will stay in the S until the differential goes back to around 315 and then decide then which fund to roll it to. I am updating my account as I write.

    Frizz B.

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    Don't forget, the market loves to humble you when you are feeling the most bullet proof. Feeling a little cocky? Maybeit is time to read market psychologyagain.

    btw, I like the odds of the market going up also. But there is always a chance the sell offcould continue.

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    Ecurb is offline Rookie
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    Tom,

    I too moved 100% to S fund effective today. I chart the SPX, I had 1108 as support. It hit 1110 before coming back at close yesterday. Also the Sentiment index you speak of, the short term is 'Excessive Pessimism', and at work one individual was panic ing and was 'getting out before the market tanks!!' So I too agree we must be close.:^

    This morning the futures seem to be bouncing, but at an upward direction, at this writing Dow up 10 Nas up 2.5 S&P 1.70.

    Ecurb

    Love that 'differential theory'



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