Thread: 4/22/04 for 4/23/04

I could be totally wrong, which I have been a lot lately, but the way to play this market lately has been to zig when it is zagging, and zag when it is zigging.

Right now it is zagging big time. I'm taking a chance and zigging out. Not a big move since I'm already 65% G anyway.

My instinct was to jump in trying not to miss this move up. My instincts have been off lately. Taking a step back, I decided to play contrarian and get out completely.

You're getting out while the gettting is good...huh? I hoping with all the good reports, that may be the bounce will continue..hope I'M NOT BEING GREEDY. Yesterday, I thought the market would be down, so I brought some more equities, and the market turned up on me...oh well..still not a bad decision.

I'm was 60% exposed, now I'm 70% exposed to stocks...the rest is hiding out in the G fund.

It's been so tough lately. I keep getting whipsawed (market goes up, I jump in, it goes down etc...). It's a tough decision and it's hard to go against the grain like this.

Like I said, I could very well be totally wrong. Won't be the first time.

Market took another turn up in the last half hour. Internals are good. Up volume way ahead of down volume and breadth is strong too. Maybe this is finally the beginning of something. I'm hoping.

Dave

tsptalk wrote:

I could be totally wrong, which I have been a lot lately, but the way to play this market lately has been to zig when it is zagging, and zag when it is zigging.

Right now it is zagging big time. I'm taking a chance and zigging out. Not a big move since I'm already 65% G anyway.

My instinct was to jump in trying not to miss this move up. My instincts have been off lately. Taking a step back, I decided to play contrarian and get out completely.

I was recently referred to this site by a friend, and have been passivily monitoring it for some time now.

I am a 57 year old male looking to retire at 62, so as yo can see I dont have alot of time left with the TSP or to get my needed nest egg in place.

I have been 95% invested inthe C, S and I all along since befor March 2000. My current balance today (appx 200K)is at or above what itwasinMarch 2000 when the bubble burst. I continued toinvest biweekly in the C,S, and Iduring the last 4 years. Yes its been nerve racking, and yes its hard to resist selling when the market is tanking, and it no less nerve racking to continue purchasing what you know is loosing money.

My only consolation at the time is to realize these are paper losses, and unless I sell they will remain paper losses and I have opportunity going forward to buy cheaper shares on the way down (buy low) and by doing so increase not so much my total $ amount balance but the total number of shares held.

I caluclate that just this past 52 weeks alone my ROI in the C fund alone is at or above 25%. The S and I are right up there with it +/-. And I have not made one single change to my allocation during that time.

Time mitigates some but not all of the market risk, the more time the better, but being as conservative as some on this board would not have allowed me to make the statment just now re: the last 52 weeks.

Get in andstay in.Keep buying, preferbably on the way down and know when to sell (at highs if you must).This as I see it is the more difficult of the two because when things are good mans greedy nature kicks in and you decide to let it ride awhile longer then comes another March 2000.

It is proven that if you are not in the market on the few keymarket days out of the year you can effect your ROI more than you will ever realize. What I have read here on this board reflects this e.g. "if I zig I shoud have zagged" or 'when i'm in I shouldn't have been and vice versa.

Bottom line in all of this is YOU CANNOT TIME ANYTHING IN THE MARKET, but you need to ensure you do not miss those few key days, just like TODAY in the SP500.

Thanks for the post elgallo. You obviously understandsome of the complexities of market timing. It can betough and frustrating but very compelling and also very rewarding. I have always said that buying and holding is the best strategy for most people. I have a longer term "strategy" page that has had long term aggressive investors 100% in stocks since late March and no less than 80% at any time this year.

You aren't the first nor will you be the last to address this. I always find the timing of these posts very interesting, i.e:after a big day rather than like Tuesday when the market was down 125 points or when the indices were down 10% from their highs. The argument loses some of its attractiveness. As you said missing out on a fewkey days can hurt, but it can also reward you if it is a 1.5% down day.

I admit 2004 has been a tough environment so far and it would have been easier to just stick it out in the C and S fund. But my experience has been that you can time the market. I can't beat the market averages every day, every month, or even every year, but over the long run I have done so. Between 2000-2003, my return was +3.74%. The return of the C, S and I were-19.84%, -10.37% and -22.36% respectively. See returns2 page. It's when the market is down when it pays off most.But in up years it can be just as good. I was up 39% last year in a bull market.

I don't recommend short term trading to everyone. But if you have the ambition, the correct attitude and a little understanding of how markets work, you can beat the averages in the long run in my opinion. I just may endup with more gray hair than you. This is an on going debate that we will never reconcile here, but it does make for an interesting discussion.

Thanks for joining us. I appreciate your input.
Tom

Congrats Elgallo, given enough deposits and a long enough period of time for compounding and high levels are possible...I treat my true investments (non TsP) accounts much the same as you...Blue chips and long term holdings (was at 395K prior to the bubble). Although with Ameritrade the in and out theory as with the TSP will make you broke . The TSP gives many the opportunity to get the blood flowing and learn a lot. Many newcomers have only been in the G fund because they didn't know better....Giving them the knowledge to make educated investments will help them throughout their investing days...Hats off to Tom....

PSInvest the maximum you can every pay period andcontribute to the Roth:^

There was an article in Money Magazine approximately within the last 5 months...A study was done investing $1000 in 1971...then going back through historical data they looked/determined ifyou were fully invested in the stock market during the best 10 days of trading every years since then as well as being in on the worst 10 days of trading your $1000 would have amounted (can't remember exactly) either to the negative or maybe 100k.. However if $1000 were invested in 1971 and you avoided the worst 10 days of trading each year since 1971 the initial investment would have accumulated to well over 1 million dollars....May be off slightly on my figures, however the jist of the article was apparant to me... This TSP program site has given me the opportunity to try some different strategies that day traders have implementing (gotta watch the greediness) ...yes I know many of day traders got burned big time however the "gain some ground" and hide in the G fund strategy I truely beleive can work...Although the TSP has made leaps and bounds in the last few years....If we could only get some real time transactions such as online we could truely slam this market....Anyone got any thoughts on how we could push the real time transactions :?

I think I may punch out today, assuming the market continues it upward surge. Take some of my profits and run. Probably hide out in the G fund for a breather. Currently exposed70% in equities, will take a cash position, and keep a 30% equity position so I limit any potential pull back, but keep my toe in the water for a possible sweet Monday bounce. Lets say it all togethr, I will not be greedy, I will not be greedy

Mr. Duke wrote:

....If we could only get some real time transactions such as online we could truely slam this market....Anyone got any thoughts on how we could push the real time transactions :?

We could have had that yesterday ifthe Govt.would have just competivily outsourced the TSP functions to the private sector instead of recreating an already existing wheel to the tune of 43 million $$$, but OOOOOHHHHHH NO.

The1st rule of the buearacacy (sp) is to preserve it, once preserved, grow it unnesessarily large and biblical proportions!!!

Yep, real time would be nice so would being able to set automatic buy/sell stops. But I guess they will have to find another unnecessary 43 million of taxpayers money to do that!!!:shock:

Well, I got into the G for today (except had 20% in I), aaaand, since it's looking like it will be below what I sold for, I'm going back in....40% C, 40% S and 20% I. Sell high, buy low? Do I know what I'm doing?? Of course not! Just having fun! :shock: I think!? Anyway, I'll sit back till it goes back up :^to over what I'm buying for....patience, and fight greed, if I can....heh heh. Now....if it just doen't end up over what I sold for by the end of the day....but, then, that's not very nice for folks in there right now. What happens, happpens...right?

Ain't this a barrel of monkeys?!?! :l

At least, even if we don't make a little more than just sitting still, we probably won't totally lose our shirts (baby's new pair of shoes, maybe), and just look at all the fun we're having in the meantime!!! :!

Good Luck, everybody. Actually, I'm beginning to think "luck" is a great big part of all this stuff. :h:h:h Ha!

Lobo :u