Thread: Interfund Transfer 3/30 for 3/31/05

macdtrader wrote:

I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!

You can view other members' allocations here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/

There are quite a few different styles (aggressive/risk averse, frequent or occasional moves, etc.). You may find one that suits your goals.

Also, a couple of folks do the admirable task of tracking the members' returns here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1422.html

The helps you see how the different styles play out in different market climates (bullish, bearish, or flat/choppy).

Hope that helps,

John

Mac.. I can tell you my plan..I don't advise.

Generally speaking one should hold off investing while in a fund / market is in a trading range. Could break up or down. When an up break out occurs let it confirm itself by waiting a few days. I never risk over 2% of total capital, nor stay in a fund that looses over 5%. It's too hard to make up!

If I was 100% G, I'd stay there until a positive break out :}. MHO!

Thank you very muchand congratulations on being Top Trader last quarter. By sharingsuccessful trading strategiesyou are helpingme and other TSP investors toa brighter future.

Spaf, thank you very much for sharing the details of your plan. I like your conservative approach to TSP investing and capital preservation. I stayed 100% invested G today sinceC,S and I all seemed to be dropping beforethetransfer cutoff. I will wait for a positive breakout as you recommended. Ihave notseen many bearish comments on this website butmy hunch isthata bear marketbeganin January 2005 for the C and S funds.

SystemTrader wrote:

Also, a couple of folks do the admirable task of tracking the members' returns here:

All,

If you would like to receive everyone's tracker worksheet (they are all in one excel file), please pm me your email address. I'll try to make it a point to sendan updated one on a weekly basis (i'll try).I will usually send the workshet on a weekend so that people may get a compilation on where everyone is allocated before they start trading again on Monday market. The file is bigger than 10240bytes which is why I can't attached it here.

It is quite exciting and an eye opener when you see everyone's tracker side by side.

Pyriel

Mac....Risk/Return

One of the TSPTalk members (Dave) who is good in math gave some of the risk/reward figures.
They looked good to me.
See what you think!

The [highlight= #ffff88]risk[/highlight]/[highlight= #88ffff]reward[/highlight] equation is illuminating. If the market goes up 10% on the year and you are 40% in the G-fund which pays 5%, you net (.4x5 + .6x10) = 8%. If the market goes down 10%, you net (.4x5 - .6x10) = -4%. You get 80% of the potential gain but avoid 60% of the potential loss.

If 60G then it works out to (.6x5 + .4x10) = 7%; or (.6x5 - .4x10) = -1%. You get 70% of the gain and avoid 90% of the loss.

Interesting!! Spaf

Spaf, thanks forsharing another great concept. Your analysis seems to be on the money. Let meadd another scenario to it. Suppose 2005is a year in whichthe SFund (or C or I) givesan investor aroller coasterthrillride but ends upflat or breaking evenfor the year. If he useda buyandholdstrategy,the G Fund willoutperformby 5% andhis opportunity cost for the thrilling ride was 5% plus theyear lost inhis questforfinancial freedom.Skillfulmarket timing or luckappearsto bethe only way to beat the current 5% return unless a new bull market similar to the 1990s begins soon wherewecan buy and hold C, S or I.

After this week'sstock market selloff, your planseems very prudent:Wait for an upwardbreakout oftwo days or more in the market averages. Withheavier trading volume, the breakout shouldindicate that professional/institutional sellershave stoppedtheir selling temporarily and arebuyingagain.

Atthe Dow Jones & Company website http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cf...t=showAverages,an interesting historicalchart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is available free of charge under the "Dow data" column. The chartsshow that in the years1966 to 1982the DJIA ended close to where it began16 years earlier.There wereseveral bull markets and several bear marketswithin that timeframe.Also,sideways drifting markets were in vogue from 1897 to 1914 andfrom 1916 to 1942, punctuated withseveralbull and bear markets.

Perhaps 2000 to 2016 is anotherstock market period similar to the great, long term,sideways markets of the last 108 years.However, if TSPTalk Investors work as a team bysharing their best trading strategiesand investment thoughts, we can each select the beststrategies for our own situation, applythem, andreachfinancial freedomsooner. Thenit may not be importantwhat type of markets we experience.

Best ofluck toall TSPTalkmembers and thanks for the great ideas!

Hey Tom, although TSP still hasn't updated the share price section, you can still see the share price by clicking on your account balance.

G= 10.81

F= 10.44

C= 12.44

S=13.86

I= 15.39

God Bless:^

I keep forgetting that. Thanks Rod!