Thread: Back in the G Fund for Monday 4/12

Looks like solid advice. I also made the jump back to G for monday.

Bob

I sure felt pretty good about our strategy this morning. The Dow was up about 70. This overbought condition may be too much for the market. The strong earnings reports couldn't hold the indices up.Anytime you think you know something, the market let's you know who is running the show. Another humbling day.It wouldn't surprise me to see nervous bulls taking more profitslate today before the long weekend. Ugh!

We are getting a bit of a reprieve here as the S&P is trying to climb back to even. I am getting less interested in this historical data but if we were to follow the similar pattern of 1993....

In 1993, the gap was closed that day, and the day ended up unchanged. The day after the holiday was up 1.3%, going against the norm of a weak close the day traders return from vacation.

...it doesn't look good for those of us out on Monday.

If we do see a strong Monday, it may be time, maybe past time, to take a look at the 1993 market action of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The economic situation was similar back then, and the market is closely following the action of the indices of 1993.

If you have an opportunity to look at a chart of the 1993 S&P 500 from January through April, you will see what I mean. Why would this be? Because when similar situations present themselves, people react in a similar fashion. It's like the put/call ratio I've talked about. When small investors get very bearish, it invariably means the market is due to rally. That has been true since they started keeping those stats.

Tom

Tom,

First of all, I love your site and what you’re doing here. Great Personal Service to complete strangers. My hat is off to you!!! I just wished it were around 14 years ago when I was handed this TSP account and nobody had a clue what to do with it!
I will absorb as much information from this site, you and fellow TSP Talkers and use it for my own personal gain and education. We all have the responsibility to limit our personal tax liability and maximize oursavings. I just hope I can contribute back in some form or another!

So may I throw my fears out into the Open! I know very little about the markets, but I understand one thing….. >Buy Low and Sell High< I look back one year ago when I had all my funds sitting in the G fund riding out the rough waters of the past couple of years and always wondering when to make a move or when the down times would be over.As I look back at one key thing stands out, we all feared and was unsure about going to war with Iraq and that fear to flight and not fight convinced me in March 2003 to go against the grain and jump with both feet into C,S, and I Funds just one week prior to going war in Iraq.I have not look back since then until this past Thursday and I'm sitting 100% in G for Monday.
I feeling real comfortable with all my funds secured and safe. Things are going poorly in Iraqright now and looking really bad for the USA. I fear the thought of just peering over the top of the nest! Watching all the bad news and footage from Iraq and the 911 hearings just rekindling those feelings I felt just before the Iraq invasion a year ago.
That right "FEAR" in my book equal's "Buy" again and come Tuesday I'm
back in 100% C, S, and I
I feeling RALLY Scared!...... and RALLY want to thank you Tom, for your wonderful service!!!

GTO

Thanks GTO! I hope I'm helping and not just being a lot of hot air.

Tom

My question to you is those of us comming up on 15 years are entitled to a $30000.00career bonus is it smart to take it and put it in tsp for growth or not take it and stick with the 50% retirement.

Rick :^:v

I'm new to tsptalk and have been watching things during the past month... really enjoy this site as I'm learning a bunch. Got to ask what $30,000 bonus are you referring to in your question? Greg

Ditto, I have 14 years and some change and never heard of any bonus. All my coworkers got a pin.

Bob

The $30,000 payment at year 15 is an early retirement payment for those who choose to accept it. The payback is that you agree to accept Redux rather than High Three as your retirement plan in the military.

My two cents is that there is probably a really good reason why the government is offering an early payment option. That good reason is that they will likely save money by getting you to accept redux. Any money they save is money you lose.

I'm certainly no expert but haveskimmed a study on this subject that concluded the best option is to let the government keep their 30K while you remain in High Three for retirement.

I'll poke around my email folders and see if I can find the study I mentioned. I think the GAO did it, but am not sure.

Lumpy

Welcome to all the new members here!

I am going to let our military members have a go at that question. I have heard it asked before but i just don't know enough about it.

Tom