Thread: Interfund Transfer 2/4 for 2/7/05

I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...

Notice that the F fund is leading today. I mentioned on Wednesday that this was likely to occur if the job numbers came in at the low end.

I will pull back a little but not completely forsake the market. C=50, S=10, I=5, G=35

If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.

The dollar rally may continue for awhile yet. I'd like to see a top form on it before I move back into the I fund. A couple more points or so on the dollar index is probably as far as it will go.

Trade numbers will come out in a week, I think - I'll just assume they will be cruddy, and that will send the dollar down (that's what happened the last time, anyway). Hopefully the dollar will climb up into that 87-88 area on the dollar index in the meantime. That'll knock the I fund down quite a bit and give a nice buy-in opportunity before the trade data comes out.

USA TODAY

02/04/2005 - Updated 9:39 AM ET


Stocks steady after jobs data
Jobless rate falls to lowest level since September '01

By Susan Lerner, MarketWatch


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks were holding steady early Friday as Wall Street assessed a weaker-than-expected January employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average [$INDU] was up 3 points in the opening minutes of trade to 10,596 while the Nasdaq Composite Index [$COMPQ] added 2 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,059 and the S&P 500 [$SPX] edged almost 1 point to 1,190.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 5.4 percent to 5.2 percent in January, the lowest since September 2001. Nonfarm payrolls, however, rose a disappointing 146,000 in the month.

Analysts said the headlines were disappointing but may not be as bad for equities as they would suggest.

"I think for equities at this stage of the cycle we're kind of hoping for Goldilocks type of economic data," said Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Wachovia Securities. "Anything on the super strong side I think would create fears that the Fed will have an increased proclivity to tighten. At this point in time to have job creation maybe at a slower than expected pace might be ultimately positive for equities."

After the "correction" we still don't have a confirmation on the primary direction of the market (bull or bear). But, the market has been moving up from the low of 1163 (S&P). Moving averages are under pricing, and the money flow is now back in the positive range. Am I missing something????

Rgds ?:?? Spaf

Maybe the bears went out for an extended coffee break? :h

Mike wrote:

I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...

Hey, hey, HEY. Just 12 hours ago I was the stupid negative guy, the sky is falling guy.

Darn, I was off by 6,000 :X.

The 146,000 gain in payrolls in January - while the most since October - still fell short of economists' forecasts for a more robust gain of around 200,000 for the month. Jobs gains for December came in at 133,000, down from an initial estimate of 157,000 just a month ago.

The hit was the textile job loss...now with all the M&A the job report will continue not be that rosy....

pyriel wrote:

If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.

On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.

The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.

However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).

... and based on market reaction thus far, looks like I'll actually profit by selling today. :shock:

saraho wrote:

pyriel wrote:

If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.

On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.

The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.

However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).

If you look a the S fund chart it is rolling over...it will lead the rest of the market down...but I am probably wrong since I can not seem to get anything else correct .

MT