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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5881

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    It's a holiday shortened week and that makes it vulnerable to a pre-holiday reversal from the trend.
    It also makes it interesting to have a holiday weekend followed with a new Month. Then add to this the whole Easter based on the first full moon after the Spring Equinox, thing....
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #5882

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Interesting ... and it's the end of the first quarter.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5883

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks are up this morning as dip buyers show up after the 2-day pullback. Yields are up, the dollar is flat to slightly lower.

    The I-fund is leading on the upside was a gain of 0.44%.

    We have oil down, gold is up, and bitcoin is holding steady near 70,000.

    So far no negative reaction to the bridge collapse in Baltimore, but that is a major port being closed to vessel traffic.

    It's a quiet week for economic data and it is a holiday shortened week as the first quarter winds down.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5884

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Strong openings and weak closes has been the most recent trend, and we have a set up for another possible negative reversal day, but can the bulls change this trend?

    Yields are down and the dollar is up so unsurprisingly the I-fund (EFA) is lagging to start the day, but all of the indices are higher and will struggle to avoid the afternoon sell-offs that we have been seeing in recent trading.

    The repeating pattern looks promising for the bulls in early trading, but again it's the close that counts.




    Gold is up while oil and bitcoin are down. Japan was up overnight and European markets are mixed with the FTSE down while the French and German markets are up.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5885

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom... Noticed in your Daily Market Commentary, & often for other past days it seems, that for the EFA/I-fund you mention the open gaps -- as having seemingly equal magnetism or drawing equal weight for being Filled by the market as C & S funds. That doesn't seem congruent with the following: (1) TSP I-fund and the EFA are (I think) impacted more than C & S funds by fluctuations of the relative values of currencies, thus gaps much more common & not as important as other non-international stocks/exchanges; & (2) I didn't go back to check, yet I vaguely recall in years-past commentaries that you mentioned/explained what I discuss in "(1)" here.
    ... So, what do you think about this, about gaps for the I-fund in contrast with those of C & S?

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  11. #5886

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I do agree with that. Good call!

    The overseas trading makes for many more open gaps on the EFA and the dollar charts.

    They probably don't get filled as frequently as our index charts, as you said, but if you do trade the EFA ETF, the reasoning behind the fills is still there. That is, if the gaps get filled, some traders / investors are made whole by the fill and tend to act - if that makes sense.

    So if someone sold EFA back near the close on March 5, they may be reluctant to buy it again until it came back to that price. Once there (gap filled) those people may buy again and the support holds.

    If someone bought that close, they may not buy more until it came back to that price, or they may put in a stop order in at that break even level.

    So those are some reasons why gap analysis works.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #5887

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It was a mixed open today with small caps leading and the Nasdaq and I-fund lagging so far, which is interesting since European markets are all up nicely, but Japan took a hit last night.

    Small caps (S-fund) are up again but potentially nearing some resistance although, after the 3-day pullback earlier in the week, may have some sustaining power as we enter early April - one of the stronger seasonal periods of the year.




    Bond yields and the dollar are mostly flat after a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report and a stronger than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.

    Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up strongly this morning.

    We have a 3-day weekend coming up in the market with the key PCE Prices report tomorrow despite the market being closed.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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