Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Every time we hit 1.5% S&P it drops to 1.00%. I hope it doesn't but I have a feeling it will get sold off.

Interesting holiday pattern research.

http://thepatternsite.com/Holiday.html

Originally Posted by jpcavin

Looking at last year's almanac trader, it states: "Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a flat year, or a 10% correction. Down January's were followed by substantial declines averaging minus 13.9% providing excellent buying opportunities later in most years.

You guys have been investing much, much longer than me. How much weight do you put into statistics? Is this something that you take with a grain of salt or is it another part of the equation used to arrive at a decision?

Here's my personal speculation on this topic. Since markets go up most of the time, the stats I post should be more accurate under bullish conditions, and less so under bearish conditions.

As you can see from the chart below, 2015 was not an accurate year, the monthly timeframe was pretty good, but the weekly sucked, and the daily was only accurate 5 of 12 months.

Untitled.png

Maybe try doing stats just on 2000-2001, 2007-2009, 2011??? I don't know... just thinking maybe to study the bearish periods and do stats based on just that since we do seem to be going that way.

I have been studying those years very intently. Looking at the price and up/down swings in relationship to the various MAs, MA crossovers, Slow Stochastic, MACD and RSI and Bollinger Bands--including all of these indicator's slopes. Looking for best patterns that would have kept you out of trouble during those awful periods and what specific parameters could be most reliably used to make a safe/profitable short-term entry.

I think I have concluded what many have said. You can't predict what the market will do. It can do anything. So trying to make decision using a strategy that includes a mix of indicators mentioned above (based on best recipe I could figure out for entry and exit), sentiment, seasonality and news (as best I can get)----Whewwwwwww..... this is time-consuming.


Best Wishes to you and to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Maybe try doing stats just on 2000-2001, 2007-2009, 2011??? I don't know... just thinking maybe to study the bearish periods and do stats based on just that since we do seem to be going that way.

This is where it gets tricky due to the lack of data, and the potential of "cherry picking" the stats in the same way some folks might alter their indicators to fit specific time frames, then think they have a forward-looking system that will yield the same results as the past. In particular, the year 2001-2009 bear market really skews the data, since there is no other Bear market like it.

The best compromise I've found is to look at the Negative Average Returns listed as "Avg. % ↓" which is listed in the bottom row. This data only counts the events when the market closed down, therefore it is a good way for the person with a bearish mindset, to ponder what their potential loss might be.

2016 - Week 02 - Weekly - SPX.png

So does this translate as next week is the third (bad) week?

Originally Posted by JTH

This is where it gets tricky due to the lack of data, and the potential of "cherry picking" the stats in the same way some folks might alter their indicators to fit specific time frames, then think they have a forward-looking system that will yield the same results as the past. In particular, the year 2001-2009 bear market really skews the data, since there is no other Bear market like it.

The best compromise I've found is to look at the Negative Average Returns listed as "Avg. % ↓" which is listed in the bottom row. This data only counts the events when the market closed down, therefore it is a good way for the person with a bearish mindset, to ponder what their potential loss might be.

2016 - Week 02 - Weekly - SPX.png

Very interesting stats. I had always heard market most likely to end higher pre-holiday. Thanks!!!

Originally Posted by jpcavin

Interesting holiday pattern research.

http://thepatternsite.com/Holiday.html

Thanks JTH. I still expect a rally and I think we'll get a doozy soon after oil bottoms. The OPEC policy decision is costing everyone: Russia, Saudia Arabia, Argentina, US, and other oil producers: a bundle. And for what...market share isn't going to change. This is a man-made problem and needs a man-made solution. Once these guys decide they've had enough pain and want to complete their secret backdoor negotiations, there will be a surprise announcement and walla... instant rally to new ATHs....Just no idea when that happens or what happens after..

FS

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

So does this translate as next week is the third (bad) week?

Hard to say, when I see a very low winning ratio, I tend to think it's time for the stats to re-align to the average.

All day I am at work and feel like this...

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Testing the Sept. low. August's next?