Bonds putting in a negative outside reversal day...
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020317b.gif
Printable View
Bonds putting in a negative outside reversal day...
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020317b.gif
Definitely not looking good for the F-Fund longterm. However, there may be a chance for a very short reprieve. PSAR uptrend dot formed outside the lower BB (circled in green on chart), majority of times that leads to a short-term PSAR uptrend. DISCLAIMER: I could easily be confused in reading the tea leaves; and as of COB yesterday I could be the F-Fund bag holder if I'm wrong :)
Carter Worth on CNBC agrees and sees a move in the 10-year treasury yield down to about 2.15% before the bear market in bonds resumes.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020417a.gif
I'm not sure I agree yet, but I can be persuaded :)... so thanks for your analysis, fedgolfer!
The dollar gapped up and broke its descending trading channel this morning, and is testing the 50-day EMA.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020717a.gif
After breaking out yesterday, but finding resistance the 50-day EMA, the dollar has pulled back to test the old resistance for support.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/020817a.gif
FWIW, I agree with you in the short term. Without showing too many charts, price has fallen (S-Fund and $tran) out of the Fibonacci Fan's line of support for the trend beginning around the election. I think indices bounce up briefly but then back down, perhaps fast. From the F-Fund point of view, we are putting in well defined cup & handle, I think price retraces and tests support before resuming an uptrend. I'd be back in stocks for a day or two if I had more than one IFT (saving that for a buy-signal in the indices later in the month). Of course, this is just more reading of the tea leaves :)
Happy trading, all.
So far the S&P has been able to get and hold above the resistance line of the flag / wedge.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021017a.gif
The small caps are testing that resistance now.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021017b.gif
It's interesting to see the VIX up almost 5% with the Dow up 100+. I figured it would be pushing down toward 10 this morning. I wonder what's up? Besides the VIX. :D
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021317a.gif
Id say it means someone is betting on some volatility and buying some protection. It's certainly not a big negative at this level, but the fact that stocks are up made it interesting.
A gap down in the dollar pushes it near 2017 lows...
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/032117a.gif
And of course the I-fund likes it, up 0.72% early today.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/032117b.gif
Once again I'm in the wrong fund. :(