Thread: Top 13 Accounts in 2005

Here ya go Fivetears:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...6460#post36460

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...5018#post35018

Thanks MM.

This account did pretty good in 2005.

Hi Folks -

This conversation tickled my interest in seeing just how well could people have done if they were "perfect knowers". Using daily historical data for the various funds over the last year (NOTE major cavet: I used data from 24 FEB 06 through 25 FEB 05 - NOT the calendar year associated with the discussion thus far) and found that if every day you traded 100% into the correct fund you could have amassed a return of...... 127.9%.

What is also interesting is that over the last 365 days the best fund to be in was

I fund for 255 days
F fund for 98 days
C fund for 7 days
S fund for 5 days

Also note that the G fund was _not_ included in the analysis. The five days of S fund investment were all in 2006.

Of course none of us are perfect knowers....

Welcome HappyQuant!

Good stuff. Those "what if"s are always fun.

Tom

I presume we have all noticed that S & I Funds have earned over 22% each during the last 200 days - probably since about July 2005. If you've been in those funds during the last 200 days, then simply moving everything to the G fund now would probably lock you in for 25+% return by July 2006 - much better than anyone did in 2005.

Perhaps that means 2006 is going to be a banner year of sorts if you manage to make the right allocations. But if you play the game wrong then you could do much worse. If you pitched a perfect game in 2005 you could have made over 127% return. But in this thread the big returns for 2005 were 14% or so.

So for some - those who've been in S & I since July 2005 - the simple strategy of going to the "safe harbor" of G (and at times F) would give you 25+% return through July 2006. (Yes, I am assuming that the G fund is going to be stable and chugging upward ever slowly through July 2006.)

And if you managed that sort of return for 10 years in a row, you would be a superstar and so would your TSP account.

By the way, I don't know anything about investing, technical analysis etc. I am a computer geek however.

HappyQuant,

In this game you will soon realize that the past is no prologue to the future - although you can sometimes hedge to some extent if you know enough past history. Good luck in your education of investing.

Dennis

Originally Posted by HappyQuant

And if you managed that sort of return for 10 years in a row, you would be a superstar and so would your TSP account.

Yes, you'd be a world renowned investment superstar. 25% a year for 10 years! Warren Buffett would be impressed.

P.S. During the past 10 years the best performing TSP Fund, the S Fund, returned an average of 11.68% a year (compounded). This occurred during the best bull market in U.S. history.

Has anyone done an analysis of the first quarter of 2006 for this list? I believe most people below also outperformed the C Fund and 20% split allocation for this past quarter, but I haven't looked at everone's returns.

ST

Originally Posted by tsptalk

2005 Top Performers:

Dakota +14.01%
Show-me +13.43%
mlk_man +11.57%
Rolo +11.28%
Neirbod +10.16%
Pyriel +7.89%
Skip +7.69%
Systemtrade +7.62%
Rod +7.56%
DrD +6.95%
TSPgo +6.22%
Mike +5.21%
Safetyguy +3.94%

* Other members may have had returns high enough to be on this list but did not qualify for one reason or other. To qualify, make sure you get your transfers documented here before the deadlines and if you are idle for several weeks, you may want to pop into your account so the Tallyman knows you are still with us.

Thanks and good luck!