Thread: TALLY April '05

Dave M wrote:

I can't find the post where Tom said, "...percent is everything..." referring to the percent gained or lost in our accounts. I wish respectfully to disagree. Is this a contest? No. We're here to help one another achieve our TSP goals. Maximizing returnis one goal, a good one but only one, and one which requires accepting the maximum risk. There are other goals.

In my case, I have a specific dollar-figure I wish to achieve by November 2010, a number I feel will be adequate to my needs. I have maximised my contributions -- $20k this year including the match -- in order to be able to minimizethe risk I must face by exposure tothe market. Multiplying by the number of years remaining, I can calculate the average return I need to get where I want to be. So my goal is not necessarily to do the best I can but to do well enough to stay on the beam. See what I mean? Agree? Disagree?

Dave

Dave,

This is not a contest at all. However, posters do have a right to point out our mistakes (Fundsurfer and I) which we do quite often . I do provideeveryone's trackers on a weekly basis for those who request for them. The idea is to learn from others and see how they are doing and how are they making their moves. Some of us, especially those who are just starting out, would like to validate their moves from those who have alot of experience. Having to see everyone's trackers in excel helps tremendously. Although, one can read from all the posts, it is quite easier to see where people had been and where they are going. For me, I now know who are the jumpers, the system traders, the long term holders, the retirees, and the newbies. By watching their moves, I can ascertain which way of the herd are going and along with additional reading, come up with a best guesstimate of where I will make my next move. Right now, I am following the jumpers.:^

Rod wrote:

Thanx! Keep in mind, I do the majority of my moves at night since I work graves.

Well, after today I'm now at -3.09% It'll be nice to get back into positive territory again!:P

Rod, Got it... We are in synched again...

Thanks, P -- I knew it wasn't a contest but I wanted to say so out loud just to remind ourselves. You're quite right, we need to know what worked and what didn't. And we need to follow up. Some things work under some market conditions, others work in other conditions.

If we had enough data we could derive anequation which described the results, and construct a risk-return diagram.Whole families of curveswould exist, predicting final dollar value of the account given a start and end date, starting value and the degree ofrisk to be tolerated. Now that would be doing all federal employees a real service. (Risk could be described probabilistically: "Do this and you have a 20% chance of a 15% gain anda 40% chance of a 5% loss.")

Are there any professionals on the board, familiar with the literature? How does our table compare with expected values given recentknown market numbers?

Dave

Dave M wrote:

If we had enough data we could derive anequation which described the results, and construct a risk-return diagram.Whole families of curveswould exist, predicting final dollar value of the account given a start and end date, starting value and the degree ofrisk to be tolerated. Now that would be doing all federal employees a real service. (Risk could be described probabilistically: "Do this and you have a 20% chance of a 15% gain anda 40% chance of a 5% loss.")
Are there any professionals on the board, familiar with the literature? How does our table compare with expected values given recentknown market numbers?

Ahhh..... Did you just talk to me in English? If you did, how come I can't understand them? Oh I got.. It must be my 2nd grade level brain:?... But to be serious, i think you are onto something here? Anyone wants to take a bat at it?

pyriel wrote:

Thanks Rod...

Milky,you didn't go 100i yesterday. Must have been bad experience. hehehe

No, but I am today and I see lots of green internationally and the dollar was slightly down. Of course with my luck, the I fund will lose .10 today....................:shock:

That's interesting. I'm pretty new here, been watching and learning as well as making a few moves now and then but not posting them. I'm very undeciseive when it comes to moving my money around. I'm three years from retirement and very hesitant to make too many bold moves. From your recent tally it appears as if one had just stayed in the "G" fund for this period, they would have done as well as the best performer and much better than most.
Pete

retgi wrote:

From your recent tally it appears as if one had just stayed in the "G" fund for this period, they would have done as well as the best performer and much better than most.
Pete

Welcome Pete!-
You have to look ahead. What did well yesterday, last week, last month or last year is not always best for tomorrow.

Good luck and thanks for joining us!
Tom

Retgi,

The markets function in cycles-just like life-some of these cycles are short term and others are intermediate, and still others are longer term. There will always be some asset in a sector that outperforms. The C fund is and has been undervalued and in my humble opinion really has not had its' day in the sun from a longer term perspective. When the sun begins to shine like it has for the last number of trading days it is totally appropriate to put on some sun block and get as much of it as you can. If this cycle is a further continuation of a new bull market that began in 10/02 the good times will out last your retirement date. I plan to continue investing even while in retirement-why not usethe valuable time to ones advantage. Now you have cash, and cash is king, use it to make more-load up.