To All,
I love throwing monkey wrenches. This might be one: I don't think the TSP paperwork includes the match in 'Your Contributions'. Should we really be including the match as growth. Can someone shed light by doing some math...
JP, the market (the S&P500) has almost tripled since March 2009. It was at $666 on something like March 9th, 2009. It was at $909 on December 31, 2008. It ended 2013 at $1,848. Putting those numbers in the spreadsheet ends up with BirchTrees C Fund:
Ending Balance: $1,848
Total Contributions: $909 - I'm guessing the starting balance is kinda like a onetime contribution
Number of Years: 5
Gain: 103.30%
Annualized Return: 29.48%
So, no, me not think the calculations are quite right. This is hard to do. Much like the CAGR. I'm thinking the problem has to do with compounding. Getting real numbers is very difficult. In fact, Tom provides a grand service hooking us up with real annual numbers.
By the way, for all us cocky trader types, the S&P500 (our much maligned C Fund) has an average annual return of 18.41% over the past five years. That computation is just the average of annual growth rates. I don't know if that is legit. I think the number of folks documented in the AutoTracker that can claim to have beaten the S&P500 from 2009 through 2013 can be counted on one hand. Oddly enough, you will need two hands if you incorporate 2008 - some folks don't lose as much as the S&P500 when it dives. So, something like <1% of the folks beat the market (but something has to be said for smoothing out the curves while still attaining good returns). And - Amoeba, I'm talking to you - the S&P500 <sarcasm>cratered by +9.14% annually</sarcasm> from 2008 through 2013. Just sitting in the 'C Fund' and drowning your 2008 sorrows in a never ending whisky bottle would have been one of the best strategies documented in the AutoTracker.
How is that for something to talk about
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