Thread: TSP Poker Club

I had the 4th Jack, but it wasn't a heart. And I knew a pair of Jacks was no good with 2 aces and a king on the board.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I had a full house in that hand (flopped a set of Jacks and the turn paired the A). I figured you could have a flush draw and might call, but I was actually thinking you had an Ace (for trip A's) and figured you'd have to call that. That's why I tried to put you all in, but you made a good fold.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

...but I also see that there is an opportunity for us to do what Sklansky and his friends did, and that is to help each other improve our games by discussing the hands as we play (or after here in the forum).

Playing for play money and standings is fun, but there are obviously good players in this group and I think we can get something more out of it.

Anyway, that’s all. Just wondering what you thought of it.

that is a complex proposal for several reasons which i am sure most of the tsptalk poker club players are already aware of. i like the idea and don't really have any concerns about sharing information about cards and play, as long as it is done in a public way that does not give advantage to any particular players or affect table play 'in the moment'.

whether i am successful at that is a whole 'nother story on which i am sure there is a wide range of opinion.

that being said, there are a number of reasons (and the prevailing wisdom is) to never show any card somebody didn't have to pay for, because it can betray what hands and how you play them to an accomplished player. but i think with modern poker skins and tracking software anybody can gather just about any information they want on you from how often defending blinds to what percentage of flops seen to how often bet/fold to a bet through to percentage of showdowns won. so i don't think the good player can 'outsmart' the average player with software anymore except in a few key areas that are qualitative not quantitative.

so i don't have any problem showing cards or discussing them at times, when it suits me to reveal that information for one reason or the other.

that being said, yes i am generous at revealing what i hold more than most. let's just say i do it on purpose, mainly to strike fear into the heart of my opponents, or to cause them to think "that dumbazz will go allin with anything", or "crap that corksoaker is so lucky always getting pocket queens".

what interests me more than "what were your cards" is the information that can be gleaned from that such as "what were you doing in that situation with those cards and how/why did you play it that way"? and more importantly, "how can i utilize that knowledge against you to my advantage".

more along the lines of revealing cards or play...

i don't think the big hands, the AA vs. KK or the slow masterful "i have a boat and am going to suck you along drawing to your straight until you hit it and then crush your hopes and dreams for all to see" hands come along that often and are even less pivotal in any given game. i think the margin lies (the money is made) with the hands along the 60/40 split matchups and before the flop when the money goes in. you better get your money in good those hands consistently or you will consistently lose at poker.

terminology: "coin flip" to me at least is those hands where one is favored over the other about 55/45 or less. and yes, you better get used to letting it all go on these if you are going to be successful at late game tournament play. but no matter what, you will win these hands about half the time.

the real margin lies with the 60/40 hands, but don't kid yourself, on any given hand you could win or you could lose. and over ten hands you could equally win or lose. even over a hundred 60/40 hands you may be at about a 50/50 split. but if you are playing correctly, that is getting your money in good in the proper situations consistently over time, then over 1,000 and certainly by 10,000 hands your win rate should approach 60/40. that is money right there. that is 2 bets over ten that you come out ahead. and that makes for a poker player that can pay his bills instead of borrowing his next stake. i have some experience at both of those endeavors.

and when you lose the 60 split to a 40 hand, you better develop a thick skin and a short memory, because it happens. a lot. (hint: about 40% of the time).

my favorite hand to illustrate the 60/40 split concept is the suited Ace-Eight vs. an unsuited King-Jack. if you don't know yet, there are tons of online hand calculators where you can type in what you had, what your opponent had, and what cards came after until the hand ended and it will show you odds along the way. this hand by the way, is the hand that basically ended my chances of winning the tournament and taking tom out last night when we were heads up and i had a slight chip lead. for the record, i will take this bet in this situation every time, and expect to win 6 times out of ten, and i will not feel bad about it a bit the on-average four times i lose. tom i'm sure has his own take on it and may want to share but i will tell you why i played it, and how.

Attachment 38057

also it should be noted that there is other reasons to recognize this hand, beyond the 60/40 critical split. one of them is the table chatter it enables if you lose (to appear steamed or to steam your opponent) when the hit the long odds.

"nice king (pause) jack off" or "oh, you like jack king off, i bet you're good at it".

remember, there is more to poker than the cards.

But keep in mind that those calculators fail to factor in betting action.

Odds say something about your hand. How the villain bets says something about their hand.

first, it is important to realize that despite how i got there, we were near the end of the tournament when the blinds will force things to happen with increasing urgency, i probably do not want a long drawn out battle with a methodical and correct and smart player like tom, and i had the chip lead so i can absorb a one hand loss whereas the same loss takes him out of the tournament which is an additional worry for my opponent, for all the marbles. also, i had to judge what hand or range of hands he would bet on or call to. i put that range in that situation at 10-queen through jack-king offsuit. any other hand i believed in that situation in that game, he would approach differently.

so i am at the 60/40 window i look for and it is time. for me? i have an overcard the ace which can shut down any pair of his if it hits. i have a flush draw to back that up. and he has only 6 cards at this point (the other 3 jacks and 3 kings) that can improve his hand because i am winning going in, i do not need additional cards - just for his few not to hit (or for him to not pick up a straight draw which dilutes my holdings - but remember i already have a flush draw). 60/40. good deal, take it every time.

why allin preflop then? why not see what 3 cards come on the flop? because if either one of us hits it changes the calculations for both of us and i like the way this will turn out for me most of the time. so it is time to race, let 'er rip tater chip.

if you play a lot, the odds are already set in your head before you see the cards, they just confirm what you are up against when the dealer gives you your two and you see your opponent's action/reaction. the decision is almost instantaneous if you have a defined strategery you play by. the outcome is out of your hands this time, but totally under your control if played consistently over the long run.

because we are among friends and because it was near the end where my now decrepit chip stack after the loss holds no threat to my opponent, i passed on the 'nice king, jack off' comment and instead said 'nh' and then 'it happens' after he acknowledged 'suck out'. that does not bother me a bit. i got to that almost winning situation by sucking out. fair is fair. that's poker.

on a side note... i do not use poker tracking or odds software realtime. because i know the basic situations and odds with at least a 90% confidence level and instead use my mental resources to 'feel', to identify if he is likely on a king jack off or in a chip/blind situation where he must soon push, or if he is tilted or if his wife is nagging or if he just plain don't care. you don't really need to calculate the odds down to 58.15% vs. 41.67% or whatever, because if you are playing right your finishes will settle out at about 60/40. some folks like knowing the exact probabilities though, and good for them. there are many ways to skin a cat.

Originally Posted by userque

But keep in mind that those calculators fail to factor in betting action.

Odds say something about your hand. How the villain bets says something about their hand.

exactly. keep reading.

Why does the cat always get skinned?

Originally Posted by jpcavin

Why does the cat always get skinned?

probably because the cat has not seen enough hands.

you have divorce yourself from the concept of 'right and wrong' and even the concept of 'money'.

the minute you traded your 'money' for little clay objects they are no longer money, they are markers. markers of skill or luck. you sit down at the table broke. your job is to accumulate as many of those chips into your stack, be in a position to stand up and take them to the casino cage, and trade them back in for 'money'. until that point, you are broke, you have no money, only chips and skill and luck.

also it should be noted that not only do you have to make it to the cage with chips to get your money, but sometimes you got to fight to get out the door of the 'the house' and get even luckier to make it all the way home or to the bank to be able to call that win 'your money' again.

but mainly to answer your question, you have not seen enough hands yet, padwan. but you will. and you will be dangerous when you do.

but even then i will confidently tell you the same thing i told tom last night and wade into the fray with a smile on my face... "i'm afraid this is going to hurt you more than it hurts me". because i intend to walk into that situation a 60/40 favorite. that is my margin.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

probably because the cat has not seen enough hands.

you have divorce yourself from the concept of 'right and wrong' and even the concept of 'money'.

the minute you traded your 'money' for little clay objects they are no longer money, they are markers. markers of skill or luck. you sit down at the table broke. your job is to accumulate as many of those chips into your stack, be in a position to stand up and take them to the casino cage, and trade them back in for 'money'. until that point, you are broke, you have no money, only chips and skill and luck.

also it should be noted that not only do you have to make it to the cage with chips to get your money, but sometimes you got to fight to get out the door of the 'the house' and get even luckier to make it all the way home or to the bank to be able to call that win 'your money' again.

but mainly to answer your question, you have not seen enough hands yet, padwan. but you will. and you will be dangerous when you do.

but even then i will confidently tell you the same thing i told tom last night and wade into the fray with a smile on my face... "i'm afraid this is going to hurt you more than it hurts me". because i intend to walk into that situation a 60/40 favorite. that is my margin.

Padwan? Do you see a Padwan here? I don't think so.

another thing to consider in poker is that some folks live for the rush, they cannot resist it. all in! they don't even care if they win or lose any time, they already divorced themselves from their money and only live to see the next drop or rise or the roller coaster. it can be addicting and gratifying in way not often recognized or understood.

your job is to spot those folks and just for fun give them a nice ride but not care a whit when they crash. wheee!

they were going to lose it all anyways, might as well be to you. winning. a good poker player has a lot in common with a good drug dealer. shoot it up buttercup, you're a star.