I'm thinking that with the dollar spiking so aggresively and BOJ's QE, that the I-fund isn't nearly as bad as it may seem. At least through early Nov. Despite the longer term uptrend of the dollar, UUP can have a week or two of downward pressure and still remain in an uptrend... giving insitutional investors time to unwind from the surprise BOJ QE. Then, rather that going from I-fund to safety... I-fund to S/C-fund, post elections. Just a contrarian strategy worth discussing that bucks the mass trend since so many are sidelined by the fast spike in US equitities and predicting topping patterns. I agree with your assessments of inverted H&S and strong bullish patterns forming. PSARs with a max step adjusted from .2 (more volative) to .1 (less volatile) shows some pretty strong bullish trends that will continue until they are broken. And coming back to the I-fund/dollar... nobody thinks its a good trade today... which means its shaping up to be a great short term one... uup price is outside the top bollinger, with a strong chance of a short term reversal back into the band.
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