Thread: I fund for May 2009

Originally Posted by Corvette

Perhaps a more pragmatic idea is if a lot of folks bought into the I fund, Barclays is forcing a higher buy price

Another idea is they are carrying a floating FV for the Nikkei.

Unethical ? Illegal ? Maybe I had the same idea as others, when Japan opens up after a solid week in the US, maybe it pops for 3% - 5%. I tried to buy in early, Monday. We are suppose to be able to "try" and market time twice a month still. Putting an unfair +FV, around $.25, was not even called for. If the Dow had tanked Tues and Wed, anybody that bought into the "I" on Monday would be eating $.25 per share and the extra negative bounce Japan would have been building. Then by throwing another "weird" or "indifferent" +FV on Tuesday makes it even more disturbing. I wonder what happens today with the share price after the late rally this afternoon ?

Here is a good article I came across concerning Post Golden Week activity.

http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blo...lmost-upon-us/

Here is an excerpt:

I noticed that one of the most powerful seasonal tendencies in the financial was for the Nikkei stock index to break shortly before or after Golden Week and decline meaningfully in percentage and time terms. “Sell in May and Go Away” is an adage quoted by stock traders everywhere, but counter to that there is also the market lore of the summer rally, which endures because it works sometimes. But not, it seemed, in Japan, where the very name “Golden Week” seemed a black joke. Leaden Week for financial markets was more like it.
This observation was bankable. In every year of the decade of the 90s, the Nikkei dropped substantially from its pre-Golden Week highs; the biggest drop was 39%, the smallest 9%, the average about 20%.
In 2000 I presented original research on the effect in the late lamented worldlyinvestor.com (hey there Jeremy Pink! Lay off the Dim Sum, will you?) I forecast the same thing to happen that year, and it did: a 20% drop a few weeks after Golden Week, a 30% drop within a few months.
In 2001, the Nikkei peaked in May and plunged.
In 2002, it rose in May but collapsed later that summer.
In 2003,the pattern failed for the first year in fourteen as the index rose 10% in May and kept on trucking.
In 2004, there was a modest 10% loss.
In 2005, there was again no playable decline around Golden Week. However in 2006 there was a rapid loss of 2500 Nikkei points.br /br /Then in 2007, the peak did not arrive until the first week in July, and in 2008 the market rallied in May but began the collapse from which it is still suffering in early June.
One might conclude that the pattern is no longer reliable. Possibly as the effect became more widely known it has been arbitraged away through the action of traders. I always felt things changed since 2000 with the inclusion of a number of key technology shares in the Nikkei that year at very high weightings and the near disappearance of financial sector weightings. Over time the Nikkei has become more like a Nasdaq proxy, and the Nasdaq is having a pretty good year in 2009, all things considered.
I’m positioning for the thing to work again this year, even though at time of writing the Nikkei is only at 8686. That’s still 1900 points above its low for the year, at a time that the economy is contracting at rates approaching 10% per annum, world markets may have run out of puff, and there are few redeeming factors in sight.

Wednesday EAFE final of +$0.1167
minus Wednesday FV (previous day) of -$0.2000 = -$0.0833
plus Wednesday FV (guess) of +$0.3800 = +$0.2967
plus mystery money of +$0.0006 = +$0.2973 final

plus Wednesday FV (guess) of +$0.3800 = +$0.2967

Seems HIGH and way off for the 3rd day in a row !!! I am out of the "I" after tomorrow !!! Never again.

Originally Posted by Corvette

Wednesday EAFE final of +$0.1167
minus Wednesday FV (previous day) of -$0.2000 = -$0.0833
plus Wednesday FV (guess) of +$0.3800 = +$0.2967
plus mystery money of +$0.0006 = +$0.2973 final

AORD up 1.87% final

Nikkei up 4.55% final

Originally Posted by MR_BOOOOM

plus Wednesday FV (guess) of +$0.3800 = +$0.2967

Seems HIGH and way off for the 3rd day in a row !!! I am out of the "I" after tomorrow !!! Never again.

It looks like you will make some mad money.
I think you will be back.

early Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.2974
minus Thursday FV (previous day) of -$0.3800 = -$0.0826

dollar up 0.27% = 84.19

Europe is up about 1.0%

Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.2016
minus Thursday FV (previous day) of -$0.3800 = -$0.1784

dollar down 0.32%= 83.73

Europe is down about 0.3%

Thursday EAFE estimate of +$0.2059
minus Thursday FV (previous day) of -$0.3800 = -$0.1741

dollar down 0.25%= 83.78

Europe was down about 0.6%

Thursday EAFE final of +$0.2059
minus Thursday FV (previous day) of -$0.3800 = -$0.1741
plus mystery money of +$0.0150 = -$0.1591 final

We are back to no FV again. It really looked like Barclays ran a rolling FV for three days till the Nikkei opened.

Everybody knew that the Nikkei was going to catch-up with a big gain. Barclays would not let anybody get a lower price so that they could sell on the day that the Nikkei opened and make some quick cash.

Interesting?