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Thread: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

  1. #1

    Default What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.

    Month Return Month Return
    Sep. 2004 0.26 Oct. 2004 0.83
    Sep. 2005 -1.07 Oct. 2005 -0.81
    Sep. 2006 0.89 Oct. 2006 0.67
    Sep. 2007 0.75 Oct. 2007 0.96
    Sep. 2008 -1.47 Oct. 2008 -2.18
    Sep. 2009 1.1 Oct. 2009 0.39
    Sep. 2010 0.06 Oct. 2010 0.31
    Avg. 0.07 Avg. 0.02
    Avg. Positive Months 0.612 Avg. Positive Months 0.632


    That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.

    -E


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  3. #2

    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.

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  5. #3

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
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    6,301

    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    All I know is we got screwed on FV today!
    We must be willing to get rid of the life we’ve planned, so as to have the life that is waiting for us. - Joseph Campbell

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  7. #4

    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.

    I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.

    -Emo

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  9. #5

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: What do you predict of AGG in September and October 2011?

    Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.

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