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Thread: Is it time to go back to F?

  1. #13

    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    I guess the money has to go somewhere, but you think stocks will benefit if the Fed starts talking about raising rates?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Last year, I put my trust in the S and I-funds as the dollar fell. I still believe in the S-fund but think there is strength in the dollar. Bonds are to volitile for me.

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Barney, you were up 34% last year - we were hoping you'd tell us.


    Looks like the AGG has put in a double top. Have bonds finally peaked?

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    [Do what you think is right and proper]

  6.  
  7. #16

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    I think it is time to go back to F

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?AGG
    [Do what you think is right and proper]

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  9. #17

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Louise Yamada is doing a segment on Bloomberg TV/radio, it's been replaying all day. If your a long-term bond holder I suggest you take a peek. It's a great listen.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #18

    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Louise Yamada is doing a segment on Bloomberg TV/radio, it's been replaying all day. If your a long-term bond holder I suggest you take a peek. It's a great listen.
    Thanks. I bought some TMV a few weeks ago to take advatage of this. It a 3X bear bond ETF. It's in my IRA so I can't short the 3X long ETF (TMF), which I'd prefer since the 3X ETF's are not great for buy and hold.

    Here's the link for those interested. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...u8lwqFO4SA.asf
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    I didn't want to use my last IFT just yet today, but I thought about getting out of the F-fund today now that the yield of the 10-year T-note hit my target of 3.68%.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #20

    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I didn't want to use my last IFT just yet today, but I thought about getting out of the F-fund today now that the yield of the 10-year T-note hit my target of 3.68%.
    Had I remembered that Wednesday was an FOMC rate decision day, I may have been more apt to make that IFT. Uh, oh! Could they raise rates tomorrow?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Had I remembered that Wednesday was an FOMC rate decision day, I may have been more apt to make that IFT. Uh, oh! Could they raise rates tomorrow?
    If they did it would be a complete surprise to most. I don't think they believe all that BS they feed us either, so why tank the market now?

    Or would it tank?

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Had I remembered that Wednesday was an FOMC rate decision day, I may have been more apt to make that IFT. Uh, oh! Could they raise rates tomorrow?
    But I think you raise a very important point. I'd like to clarify for the newbies and for me too. If interest rates start to go up and/or inflation rates start to rise, then F Fund is the place to be, right?

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Rising interest rates and/or inflation are bad for bond prices and cause yields to rise. Basically, think of a dividend paying stock. When the yield is dropping, price is rising (unless it's a crooked bank that cut the dividend of course). When yield is rising, price is dropping. In a perfect trade you want to get into a bond when you believe yields have peaked for a cycle.

    Inflation is non-existent in this economy. If Ben and Co. threw a couple trillion of not only mine, but my kids and grand kids futures into a bailout stew so dumb California home buyers can continue to buy GM cars and iPods- and all we're getting is 1.5% YOY rise in food prices- then I can't buy the inflation story.

    Bond Link:http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

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  23. #24

    Default Re: Is it time to go back to F?

    Quote Originally Posted by XL-entLady View Post
    But I think you raise a very important point. I'd like to clarify for the newbies and for me too. If interest rates start to go up and/or inflation rates start to rise, then F Fund is the place to be, right?
    Yeah, what bullitt said. The chances are that the Fed won't raise rates (as coolhand said), but I think I would have preferred to take profits in the F-fund just in case they do. As I mentioned, yields have come down this month, hitting my initial target (bonds and F-fund up) so I should be getting out, but didn't want to use that last IFT. If they happen to raise rates Wed., I'd probably be giving back those profits.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  24.  
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