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Thread: Warning Signs-

  1. #1

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    Default Warning Signs-

    Warning Signs that the economy is possibly in trouble.


    Here is the one I saw this morning:

    U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall 1.1% in May

    Source: The Wall Street Journal.

    U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall 1.1% in May
    Decline attributed to decreases in volatile categories of military-aircraft orders and orders for civilian airplanes and parts

    By Ben Leubsdorf and Sarah Chaney
    June 26, 2017 8:38 a.m. ET

    WASHINGTON - Demand for long-lasting factory goods declined in May for the second straight month, a possible sign of softness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

    Orders for durable goodsproducts designed to last at least three years, such as computers and industrial robotsdecreased 1.1% from April to a seasonally adjusted $228.18 billion in May, the Commerce Department said Monday. That was the largest drop in six months.
    ....


    Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-dur...may-1498480687



    That is the second month in a row for durable goods to have fallen.

    Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?




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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    Auto Sales slipping too:


    U.S. auto sales seen down 2 percent in June: JD Power and LMC


    By Nick Carey | DETROIT

    U.S. auto sales in June likely fell 2 percent from a year earlier despite large discounts for consumers, presenting a fresh sign that automakers are heading into a downturn, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Monday.

    LMC also cut its full-year 2017 forecast for new vehicle sales for the third consecutive month, to 17.1 million units from its previous forecast of 17.2 million.


    June U.S. new vehicle sales will be about 1.48 million units, a drop of 2 percent from 1.51 million units a year earlier, the consultancies said.


    The forecast was based on the first 15 selling days of the month. Automakers will release June U.S. sales results on July 3.


    The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for the month will be 16.5 million vehicles, down nearly 2 percent from 16.8 million units in the same month in 2016.



    Keep your eye on auto sales over the next several months. Lower sales could signal bad news for the economy overall.

  4.  
  5. #3

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    I think the 2.1% 10-year Treasury is a possible sign, but that could just be a sign of low inflation - which is also not great tor the economy.

    The price of oil falling. That could be supply issues rather than demand, but still.

    The price of copper was falling for months, but showing some signs of life recently.

    The employment numbers continue to be very good, but we know that over the years many of the jobs have been very low paying.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #4

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?
    no, but after $20 trillion dollars, 8 of which is new debt, i see the fed is raising rates after a decade of inaction. don't fight the fed. timing suspect, results undeniable.
    100g

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  9. #5

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Warning Signs that the economy is possibly in trouble.

    Here is the one I saw this morning:
    ...

    That is the second month in a row for durable goods to have fallen.

    Have you seen any other economic indicators showing that the economy is slowing down?
    I think this thread will likely end up in the political area, because while this is a good subject for us, we all know what my good friend James is doing here.


    Why Americans Feel So Good About a Mediocre Economy

    There's a divergence between "soft" measures of sentiment and "hard" data. Partisan leanings offer an explanation.

    One big source of systematic error is partisanship. It’s well known that the party of the president has a dramatic effect on people’s views of the economy. Before the election in November, Democrats held a much more favorable view of the economy than did Republicans; after Trump won, that gap promptly flipped. Republicans now claim to be extremely confident about the economy, while Democrats report pessimism.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...diocre-economy
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    As a frequent critic of "you know who" I would say any big slowdown and possible Recession would not be surprising, nor necessarily the fault of who is in the WH.

    After 8 years since the end of the last Recession, we are at a point in the cycle where it actually could slow down a bit. I think its important that we all be able to talk about some early warning signs without getting too partisan.

    So I vote for keeping this thread open to all, for now.
    There are many * threads where we could vent on whose fault any slowdown might be.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    As a frequent critic of "you know who" I would say any big slowdown and possible Recession would not be surprising, nor necessarily the fault of who is in the WH. [snip]
    FWM, did you really write that? Yeah I hope it stays out of the * threads.

    PO

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I think the 2.1% 10-year Treasury is a possible sign, but that could just be a sign of low inflation - which is also not great tor the economy.
    I think one thing to watch is how the Fed actually reduces their bond holdings/balance sheet....if they are not careful there could be an adverse market reaction.

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    U.S. stock market 'running on fumes,' Fed policymaker says

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-sto...162934869.html
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  19. #10

    Default Re: Warning Signs-

    I know this is for warning signs so it may not belong, but the Chicago PMI came in at 65.7 this morning, beating the 57.8 consensus estimates and last month's number of 59.4. That's a pretty good number, but if you notice the chart on that site (copied below and I updated with the new number with red arrow), it shows that it doesn't tend to get much higher than that, so is this a case of nowhere left to go but down?

    https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Ca...leases/chi.htm




    (https://www.briefing.com/investor/ca.../2017/06/26-30)
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Warning Signs-


    After Years of Growth, Automakers Are Cutting U.S. Jobs

    Source: MSN/NY Times

    DETROIT — After a prolonged recovery that culminated in two years of record sales, the American auto industry is slowing down, with fewer buyers in dealer showrooms and fewer workers on the factory floor.

    Automakers said this week that sales dropped in June for a sixth consecutive month, falling by 3 percent from a year ago, a trend that analysts do not see letting up anytime soon. And as demand falls, there is less work in the nation’s auto-assembly plants — primarily those that build traditional passenger cars. Last year, those plants hit a peak of 211,000 workers, a 55 percent increase since the depths of the recession in 2009. That figure has dropped by more than 2 percent so far this year, to 206,000 workers in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and could shrink further as sales continue to fall.

    “There’s been a consistent reduction in plant output in the last six months, and what is ahead in the next six months could be pretty startling,” said Ron Harbour, an auto manufacturing expert at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

    The decline signals at least a pause in Detroit’s resurgence from the dark days of the financial crisis, which General Motors and Chrysler survived only through bankruptcy and bailouts. It’s happening despite President Trump’s promises to pressure automakers to save and create good-paying American factory jobs.

    Read more: After Years of Growth, Automakers Are Cutting U.S. Jobs


    More cuts in manufacturing. Another sign.

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