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Thread: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

  1. #1

    Default US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Looks like the US economy is starting to fire on all (or at least most) cylinders.
    Unemployment rate falls to 4.9%.

    Despite some claims that does not represent the labor force...it actually seems to be doing just that, as companies are finding it harder to find employees in a dwindling worker pool, forcing them to raise salaries to attract new workers. Basically, anyone who wants a job, can get a job, and now salaries are going up, proof of a constricting job market. Seems that the only reason the labor force hasn't gotten larger is the mathematics of more retirees over new younger workers, a trend that began in the 90's.

    Wages Rise as U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/bu...ates.html?_r=1
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  3. #2

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    Default re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders


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  5. #3

    Default Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    without getting into all the pretty charts and details, trying to convince somebody that the economy is firing on all cylinders is like trying to sell bikinis to eskimos, or mittens in the sahara desert.
    100g

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  7. #4

    Default Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Firedog,
    You get no argument from me when it comes to the Global Economy. But this thread is the "US Economy"

    Even though we are more connected to a degree, our economy is in better shape than Germany, France, and Japan. MUCH BETTER than Russia and our trend is MUCH BETTER than China.

    Otherwise, nice link. Definitely don't invest in the -I- Fund right now.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #5

    Default Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    There is a copy of this entire thread in the politics area if politics must be brought into it. I know it can be tough to talk about the economy, good or bad, without inserting some politics. So if you must, here's the political version...

    * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Thanks.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Record Number of Consecutive Months of Private Sector Job Growth.
    14 Million New jobs Created Past 6 years.

    Consecutive Jobs growth.png

    That Is Responsible for Unemployment (calculated the same way as the past 50 years) Approaching 20 Year Lows.
    Unemployment Rate 2016.png

    That Is Why New Unemployment Claims Are At 20 year Lows.
    Unemployment Rate.jpg
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-12-2016 at 01:10 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  13. #7

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

    Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.

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  15. #8

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Interview with Stockman a few days ago. At 2:40 he is asked what does he see that other economists don't see.

    After a few seconds of a lead in his answer he gets into the specific information that leads him to see the R word. David Stockman: Markets Going to Be Mauled by Bear - Bloomberg Business

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  17. #9

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    Quote Originally Posted by Warrenlm View Post
    The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

    Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.
    Yes interesting link.
    But irrelevant to this thread because it talks primarily about European Central banks and the threat of negative interest rates.
    This thread is about the US economy...not the EU...not Japan.

    If you remember, the EU and the US have been, and continue to be on opposite ends of the interest rate and QE see-saw. When the Great Recession started, the EU thought that austerity was needed immediately...whereas Team Bernanke/Summers/Geithner, remembering the past lessons of the Great Depression, felt massive Stimulus, QE and low interest rates were needed first, then followed by a slow unwinding. So far history has proven that route to be correct. Europe realized its mistake too late, their economies continued to constrict, while ours grew. Finally Draghi reversed course a a few years ago, but that put the EU years behind us.

    For the US, we've had (in case you missed the news) an interest rate HIKE. That...is the sign of a healthier economy. If anything, many economists felt the Fed should have hiked a year ago.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  19. #10

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    You can see here that we don't always fall in lock step with the global economy.

    Coming out of the "Great Recession", the US GDP grew steadily and faster than Europe and Japan...both of whom went austerity first before changing course.
    You have to give credit where credit is due...and this is why with China on the downswing, the US remains in the strongest position economically in the world and unlike China, the trend is our friend.

    Next recession will not be nearly as bad here as in other countries, thanks to us being on more solid ground today than the rest of the industrialized world.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #11

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    It's a huge morning for the US economy


    Good morning!

    It has been a huge morning for the US economy as the housing market and the health of US consumers is in focus.
    Here's what we learned:


    • The housing market is solid.
    • Consumers are a little concerned about the stock market.
    • Home Depot is a monster.


    The homebuilding giant Toll Brothers also reported earnings before the bell Tuesday morning that beat expectations, with revenue totaling $928.6 million for its fiscal first quarter, topping expectations for $910.8 million.
    The company's average home price in the quarter hit $873,500.
    But the real takeaway from the company's report was its commentary on both the labor market and the US economy in general. And it was almost all bullish.


    US housing market update - Business Insider
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #12

    Default Re: US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

    U.S. incomes are finally growing

    "The missing piece from the economic recovery has finally materialized."

    "Median household income, adjusted for inflation, is now higher than it was before the recession that began at the end of 2007, according to new data published by Sentier Research."
    "Despite widespread worries of another recession, data on jobs and income show that ordinary workers are increasingly better off. Famed billionaire businessman Warren Buffett said in his latest annual letter that “America’s economic magic remains alive and well." The numbers back him up."




    U.S. incomes are finally growing - Yahoo Finance
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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