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Thread: P&F Chart School

  1. #157

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    OK_ Just for the record-here goes a statement:

    When Janaury first rolled around this year, I created an autotracker account that is called "P&F chart C". It was intended to be an account on the autotracker that mimics the buy and sell signals from this P&F chart.

    Unfortunately, I was busy doing some other things (like trying to gain signatures for the tspshareholder.org thing), so I missed the sell signal a few days after the first of the year.

    Since I missed that sell signal, I have simply "let it ride" the last four months- and it has exactly followed the S&P 500 *(The C fund) ever since. I never moved anything when the P&F chart moved- I simply let it ride.

    Now that I'm done with the signature thing, I will begin to watch more closely, and make buys and sells when the P&F chart does.

    Techincally, yesterday, at the close, the P&F chart hit a "High Pole Warning". That's a sell signal. So today, in the autotracker, I will be executing a trade to sell, and from here on out, I will be using the P&F chart signals for that autotracker account (which is different from my own pesonal account".

    So we'll see if the P&F chart does better, or worse, than either staying in the C fund all the time, or my own actively managed account (my own being limited to two times per month, as I try and make decisions based on the proposed rules).

    The High Pole warning means a sell signal at the close of business today. I'll enter the "PF Chart C" IFT today before noon.

    thanks for watching.

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  3. #158

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    Quote Originally Posted by anidoc View Post
    OK. Two questions - just your opinions, please James.
    1. We seem to be headed up today. Is this a bounce off 1350 that will give us another leg up, or do you think we will head back down to 1340 by the end of the day?
    Answer: My gut is telling me there is lots of money on the sidelines, the bullish support line is below us still, and the fluctuations here are people trying to buy in for the future. Again, that's just gut feeling, nothing else. I still think we'll end up slightly down into the 1340's, before we head higher, but again, that's my gut. My gut is saying it may take a couple days to get that 1340's out of our system.


    Q: Would that give us another row of "0's"?
    Answer: No. We won't get another row of "O"S down, until we get another row of "X"s up. It takes three squares of movement to change direction. We are now within the existing row of "O"s, and that will continue, until such time as we either add another "O" below where we are now, in which case the chart is filled in, and we'll be ready to move higher (my gut again, just opinion), -OR-

    OR we've already seen the downside here, and we'll get a new row of "X"s when the market rebounds here upward, and travels more than three units up, thereby reversing the "O" appearance from yesterday.
    Q: High pole warning giving a sell signal to those in C. So would that be a buy signal for those sitting on the sidelines in F and G?
    Answer: No- that would be a signal for everyone to go to the sidelines, and then wait for a new postive buying signal to appear.

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  5. #159

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    Looking again at the chart just now- I'd say it's possible we have hit bottom and are rebounding up now. It will take crossing over the 1380 mark on the upside to get the "X"s to appear, in which case I have NO IDEA what that High Pole warning yesteday was all about.

    I am keeping my OWN funds in stocks today, not trading out.(see last night's comments), although I am going to go ahead with the PF Chart C autotracker account and make a move out on that.

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  7. #160

    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    James:

    Do you why there is such difference between $SPX and SPY on the P&F charts? TIA

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  9. #161

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    Quote Originally Posted by RPM View Post
    James:

    Do you why there is such difference between $SPX and SPY on the P&F charts? TIA
    You ask an interesting question.

    I'll try and write something up in answer, and post it tonight in this thread:

    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3493

    The sum of your question comes down to "Why don't ETF's perform exactly in line with the indexes they are supposed to represent?"

    And that answer will take more than I can do here.

    See you over on that thread later tonight.

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  11. #162

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    Yep- it will have to dip down below the magic 1340 in order to get that last "O" to appear.

    Either today, or Monday, would be a good timeframe for it to happen.

    Remember, in P&F charting, timeframes have NO impact whatsoever on the chart. It could be today, it could be two weeks from now. What DOES seem to work in this theory is the numbers, not the times. It's "two dimensional" tracking.

    But isn't it interesting, techincally, to watch how it works?


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  13. #163

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    That 1340 number is holding up pretty well, no? Interesting how we are RIGHT on the cusp of that puppy, and it hasn't broken yet.

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  15. #164

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    It broke below 1339 at 1:30 pm. What does it mean when S&P500 breaks 1340 and another O is added? Watch out for further weakness, or its next move is back up, next week, in two weeks, or next month?

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  17. #165

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    OK- Bingo. We got the 1340 broken, and the "O" has appeared:


    Now, what SHOULD happen, is that we can roll around here a little bit, but the 1330 floor underneath us is solid at steel. Since we're still above that blue "Bullish Support Line", we MAY spend a day or two in the 1330-1340 range, BUT-- then we should head back up. IF and when we do, the next cycle up will be to the 1390-1400 range. That assumes we go up.

    That's IF the bullish support line holds. I tend to think it will, only because we're in an up-slope line, and because although the news isn't very pleaseant these days, we seem to get money flowing back in each time we've gotten to the bottom of these waves for the last couple times.

    The fact that we got a "high pole warning" on April 9th means that we COULD be in for some trouble here, though. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.

    Our make-believe "PF Chart C" account in the autotracker made the move to safety yesterday. We'll continue to watch now and see what happens over the longer term.

    Isn't this fun?

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  19. #166

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    This should help us next week:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/credit_crisis.html

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  21. #167

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    BY all accounts-if you subscribe to the theroy that we're still in the up cycle here, then the floor should stay above the blue "bullish support line".

    That means we COULD fall as low as 1320, and still remain in the upward trend. A fall below 1320 and we could get the break of the bullish support line. (I am not exaclty sure here is the magic number is 1320 or 1310 to break downward the bullish support line, it' s kind of hard to tell here in this graphic:


    However, the general trend is still showing that we should not expect lower than a 1330, so for now, that remains the low side target on this wave.

    We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

    I'm still in, waiting to see if the blue bullish support line is penetrated. If not, then we should go back north very shortly. If it does get penetrated to the downside, then we have a long way down, and I will bail out.

    Let's see how the day goes.

    My money is riding (literally) on the bottom being at the 1330 level. We'll see.


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  23. #168

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    Default Re: P&F Chart School

    Yep- we bounced down to 1328.49, and then came right back up above the 1330 level.

    We'll see what that means later today.

    The move below 1330 caused the new "O" to appear-


    We're still good for the turnaround shortly, PROVIDED that there is no new bad news as an outside driver.

    Remember- this thing works most of the time- except that outside forces can and do drive changes in direction.

    I'm still banking on the 1320 will hold, and we'll go back up. In fact, that 1330 has been a pretty solid resistance force, except for that one little blip this morning.

    We'll see how it pans out.

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