A recent post over at
Albertarocks' TA Discussions shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.
But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less,
the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the
fastest ever. Strap in!
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