Any Technical Indicators Actually Work?

**VirginiaBob** · 10-31-2006, 03:14 PM

I've tried MACD, RSI, Moving averages, AROON, etc. with many different parameters and using historical tsp share price data, and can't find anything that works better than buy and hold, taking into account the IFT delay. Has anyone found anything that actually works? If so, can you give some suggestions? It just seems like everyone is just flat out guessing, and it's just random who happens to do good any particular year. Sure you have some people getting 20%, but you have others getting -5%. Just asking for suggestions. Thanks.

**KAPLOWD** · 10-31-2006, 03:43 PM

www.hsdent.com

First read the key concepts. He's also written several books which your library might have.

**VirginiaBob** · 10-31-2006, 03:46 PM

It doesn't look like he uses technical indicators. He uses fundamental analysis.

**fedgolfer** · 11-01-2006, 06:05 PM

different indicators work better in different types of markets, the slow and fast stochs are great for sideways action, buy and hold is great for a bull market. If you've been looking at tech indicators during the recent bull run, you're right they look overbought... you'll soon learn what works during what kind of market. but it also depends on your thresholds of risk/reward/pain, etc. The stochs were very profitable for me during May through July when buy and holders were gettin' clubbed. I usually look at parabolic SAR, MACD, RSI, price channles/bollinger bands too... mix n' match depending on markets and chart patterns i think are developing.

**FUTURESTRADER** · 11-01-2006, 07:13 PM

fast stochastics for first hint, confirmed by slow stochastics, followed by macd histo..add a pinch of 20 day...and stir

. trend lines/channels also

**fedgolfer** · 11-01-2006, 07:29 PM

... what do you use for navigating the traffic on the Pike?

**FUTURESTRADER** · 11-01-2006, 07:38 PM

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

... what do you use for navigating the traffic on the Pike?

Hummer H-1

**VirginiaBob** · 11-01-2006, 07:47 PM

Has anyone actually gone through an analysis using real TSP data and proven that any of these techniques work? If so, post your results and how you made your decisions and with which fund. I'd like to go through and backtest your data to prove to myself it works. Thanks.

**nnuut** · 11-01-2006, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by VirginiaBob

Has anyone actually gone through an analysis using real TSP data and proven that any of these techniques work? If so, post your results and how you made your decisions and with which fund. I'd like to go through and backtest your data to prove to myself it works. Thanks.

From my experience even back testing won’t prove that a technique works.

**ayla** · 11-01-2006, 08:47 PM

Originally Posted by VirginiaBob

Has anyone actually gone through an analysis using real TSP data and proven that any of these techniques work? If so, post your results and how you made your decisions and with which fund. I'd like to go through and backtest your data to prove to myself it works. Thanks.

I'm still new at this technical analysis. I haven't found anything in particular that I can say works. The only thing I CAN say is that I think technical analysis will help you avoid making a REALLY REALLY stupid decision.

If I would have been doing technical analysis back in May when the big pullback started then, I would have sold my 100% I Fund stake a heck of a lot sooner than I did And I would not have bought back until the 50 day MA was above the 39 week MA and the 20 day MA was above the 50 day MA. As far as I can tell, that is a conservative but pretty safe place to be. Once the Price drops below the 50 MA, then "SELL" is my new mantra. (I might let dropping below the 20 day MA stand for a couple days..)

I think the more subtle analyses are beyond my reach for now. Probably will take years to really come up with a more reliable strategy. I wish I would have started this when I was much younger. From what I can tell, it is your experience that will guide you.

For example, I have analyzed the May 9th drop (in the I Fund) quite a bit now and have alerts and alarms. If I had been doing this longer, I would have more "critical events" to understand and try to develop a strategy for. Guess I can look at historical data, but isn't really that much too look at as far as extreme drops since I Fund is relatively young.

From using my own data extracted from the TSP site, I can say that I no longer trust the stockcarts.com web site and barchart and others. I have checked my data and don't think there are errors (but wouldn't stake my life on it yet.)

Seems like all the charting websites have the numbers for RSI and ROC and MACD(s) a fair amount different than what I'm seeing in my real data. But as I have said, I'm still new and am still looking to see where my data may be wrong. Bottom line: I feel much better looking at my own data.

Let us know what indicators you like best. My next one to evaluate and include in my data is the "slow stochastic". Gotta do this stuff a little bit at a time. There is SOOO MUCH to look at.

**Birchtree** · 11-01-2006, 09:09 PM

I like the wind sock the best. The MCSUM can give you a fairly good percentage of success all dependent on how high or how low it is from its zero line. If the MCSUM is above the zero line - the bulls are in control. If the MCSUM is below the zero line - the bears are in control. 60% of your trading success ratio is based on who is in control of the pattern of money flow. The larger the distance from the zero line that the MCSUM is then this increases or reduces your probability ratio rvrn further. We are churning now and it is difficult for a price decline to begin to trend, the MCSUM is going to have to be closer to the zero line. The MCSUM for the Dow is currently +953.

**AIF** · 11-02-2006, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by ayla

I think the more subtle analyses are beyond my reach for now. Probably will take years to really come up with a more reliable strategy. I wish I would have started this when I was much younger. From what I can tell, it is your experience that will guide you.

This is where I'm at.