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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #841

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thought I'd share some of what I worked on much of last weekend while watching football (Go Cougs!, finally a respectable win (over Rutgers)).

    I've been looking at different ways to modify my "seasonal strategy", including looking at using carefully selected ETFs to try to beat the TSP fund returns (for that I did it for 2014 only and the TSP funds actually beat the ETFs but just a bit (14.21% versus 13.54%), which surprised me), and using the crazy lunatic trading system https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/ modified with the seasonal strategy (i.e., for the 2-week trades into stocks, use the S fund for Dec/Jan/Feb, C fund for March, I fund for April, C fund for May/June, I fund for July, C fund for Aug/Sept/Oct, then back to the S fund starting in late November per the current seasonal patterns for small-cap stocks shown on equityclock.com).

    The results were quite interesting. For 2015 so far, through yesterday (and I should add that the lunatic system would have had you get out of stocks yesterday, which to me is uncanny since it just produced a great two-week return using the C fund then has you safely in the G fund starting today) the lunatic system has returned 16.28%, which would put anyone following it in 2nd place in the tracker right on the heels of Macdaddy.

    Overall though, the best system I came up with (and I back tested this clear back through 2004, and also looked at using just the G fund or just the F fund...I had 22 tabs of data, each tab with 3 different systems!) was a simpler system (just eight trades per year, no more, no less) that uses the basic seasonal strategy above, but for the trades in/out of stocks and into/out of the G or F funds, rather than doing it blindly on the last day of the month it uses the lunar turn dates. Holy cow, that strategy produced an amazing 14.64% on average annually since 2014 if you used only the G fund, and an even better 15.58% annual using the F fund.

    Another thing I like about all of these systems (and every one of them beat the S&P 500s return by the way, which has averaged 6.83% from 2004 through 2014) is that the strict lunar system produces these stellar returns while you are safely out of stocks 50% of the time, so it's almost like having a conservative portfolio that's 50% stocks and 50% bonds...for my "enhanced" seasonal strategy system your out of stocks about one-third of the year. These systems are also totally mechanical, you can set the dates to do your trades clear out to the year 2100 in a spreadsheet if you pay the $130 to by the lunatic trading software to get the dates out that far (I downloaded the software for free for the 30-day trial, but it only gives you the exact dates one month into the future (but for decades into the past, so I was able to complete my spreadsheets going back to 2004 with exact lunar data).

    Anyway, thought I'd share that. It's kind of shaken up my plans for what to do with the TSP upon retirement since now I see with this simple trading system I could easily cut the stress of investing about 99%, and spend a lot more time sipping lemonade by the pool. As for today's prediction, the lunar system said to get out yesterday, and the Elliott waves are agreeing that a top is very near, maybe with a pop higher initially after the Fed announcement. So I have to believe that by Monday the market will be heading down pretty hard.

    For next year I'm planning on updating the status of the system I end up choosing to use here in my blog, and I'm curious/hopeful that I can end finishing consistently in the top 100 or so in the tracker every year with it. No more guesswork, that would be nice.... we'll see.

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  3. #842

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    Thumbs up Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hello "Tsunami". Nice to make acquaintance with another WSU-Coug! Thanks for the shout-out on their nail-biter WIN (nice to be able to say that & have reason for a shout). On that note, you should recognize the markings on my TSPtalk icon-gif aircraft.
    Yes your strategy and the "lunatictrader" thing sounds interesting; thanks for posting and I'll have to check it out more. Go COUGS!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Thought I'd share some of what I worked on much of last weekend while watching football (Go Cougs!, finally a respectable win (over Rutgers)).

    I've been looking at different ways to modify my "seasonal strategy", including looking at using carefully selected ETFs to try to beat the TSP fund returns (for that I did it for 2014 only and the TSP funds actually beat the ETFs but just a bit (14.21% versus 13.54%), which surprised me), and using the crazy lunatic trading system https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/ modified with the seasonal strategy ...

  4.  
  5. #843

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FAAM View Post
    Hello "Tsunami". Nice to make acquaintance with another WSU-Coug! Thanks for the shout-out on their nail-biter WIN (nice to be able to say that & have reason for a shout). On that note, you should recognize the markings on my TSPtalk icon-gif aircraft.
    Yes your strategy and the "lunatictrader" thing sounds interesting; thanks for posting and I'll have to check it out more. Go COUGS!
    Thanks FAAM, nice to know I'm not here alone in my misery LOL. One thing about WSU grads, all you have to do is watch a few ESPN GameDay shows year after year after year, and see that WSU flag waving in the background every time. It's been a dozen year's since the proud days of the Rose Bowl teams, but WSU fans stand by their team and never give up, no matter how bad we suck LOL. Similarly, I will never give up trying to find the perfect system (for me) to get steady market-beating returns. I've spent 1000's of hours on it over the last six years or so and it's finally coming together. I shall never surrender to the Wall Street thieves LOL.

    Go Cougs, clobber the Cowboys!

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  7. #844

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just keep posting your thoughtful analysis Tsunami!! I always appreciate your thoughts and ideas!! I found your analysis on seasonal system adjustments very interesting; especially the returns part!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  9. #845

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    My guess... From yesterday's panic short-covering peak down to today's close looked like a clear 5-waves, completing the initial wave 1 down of a larger fall. The after hours buying pretty much confirms that. So Monday I'd expect to see a strong wave 2 rally (the typical a-b-c correction upwards), perhaps recovering all of today's losses, 1990 looks like a good target. The bulls will be excited again, then whoosh the rug gets yanked out Tuesday for a sharp wave 3 down for several days, plunging down to near the 1867 August low...then a quick wave 4 up and 5 down into the close on 9/30 (1820?) will complete the fall on the day before the lunar phase turns green on 10/1. I sure wish I had another IFT in my pocket to buy back in on 9/30 since I think 10/1 will be the best day in October and I'll miss it. Maybe this leg down can slow down a little and complete on 10/1 or later.

    Could be totally wrong of course, but that's my expectation.

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  11. #846

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi Tsunami. I was expecting Friday's close to be nearer 1945 but wasn't surprised at 1958. Monday is now a toss up for me. Does the market continue down to 1945 and then rally to 1975-1980 over the next week; followed by another to 2000-2005 the following week? Then in late Sept-early October begin the next leg down to 1920 or lower? I was expecting a rally lasting for at least part of last 2 weeks of September. Your analysis suggests that if we may have a very brief but powerful rally on Monday; markets will then begin to decline in September. That appears more than reasonable to me and I appreciate your thoughts. I'll have to watch the morning action to see if it appears to be in decline, or is it rallying. Won't have much time to bail if I need to so watching momentum and the news will be a Monday morning must.

    I just hope the market doesn't tank to 1920 or lower on Monday but my guess is that the market will have settled down and will be ready to take advantage of continued low rates.

    All the best in your investing.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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  13. #847

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    FS,

    Late September is a minefield historically, plus for only the 3rd time this century we have a signal in place that indicates we're just in the BEGINNING stages of a bear market, plus the waves are aligned in an ominous way.

    https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/s...906752/photo/1

    Stock Market Slump: Why September Is The Worst Month For Stocks

    Almanac Trader

    Hmm, I haven' listened to it yet but it sounds like even Ciovacco is getting bearish:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMUR918pgts

    I'm heading out on a Colorado road trip today so I won't be watching the markets at all during the day this week... not to mention I'm out of IFTs as well...so I'm very happy to be sitting in G...though F would probably be better in this case.

    I'll put a twist on Tom's motto...Friends don't let friends catch a falling knife!

    Think of me Tuesday morning when the stock futures are way down...I'll be standing right here watching the sunrise over the Maroon Bells without a care in the world...
    White River National Forest - Special Places

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  15. #848

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I mentioned on Bquat's account this AM, being invested going into the new month hasn't paid off last two months.

    A quick glance at the S&P looking back over this year it looks down and the few ups were early month scalp opportunities, crossing over into the new month fully invested in the TSP stock funds hasn't been all that great unless you sell after about two trading days. That's going against conventional wisdom in the buy the dip bull market we had enjoyed. Things can change of course, so can't be biased.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    My guess... From yesterday's panic short-covering peak down to today's close looked like a clear 5-waves, completing the initial wave 1 down of a larger fall. The after hours buying pretty much confirms that. So Monday I'd expect to see a strong wave 2 rally (the typical a-b-c correction upwards), perhaps recovering all of today's losses, 1990 looks like a good target. The bulls will be excited again, then whoosh the rug gets yanked out Tuesday for a sharp wave 3 down for several days, plunging down to near the 1867 August low...then a quick wave 4 up and 5 down into the close on 9/30 (1820?) will complete the fall on the day before the lunar phase turns green on 10/1. I sure wish I had another IFT in my pocket to buy back in on 9/30 since I think 10/1 will be the best day in October and I'll miss it. Maybe this leg down can slow down a little and complete on 10/1 or later.

    Could be totally wrong of course, but that's my expectation.
    Cheers, Jeff
    US Army, Ret. 2010

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  17. #849

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Have a safe trip. Appreciate your thoughts as always.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  18.  
  19. #850

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Not saying I'm in agreement with these ultra-bearish predictions, yet, but got to keep an open mind. Very interesting stuff from two respectable gurus:
    https://cyclesman.com/wp-content/upl...eter090915.mp3

    Today's rally will be sold and we're just getting into the meat of this small wave down that still looks like it should bottom early next week I think.

    Gorgeous scenery in Colorado. We hit the peak of fall color perfectly and the sunrise on the Maroon Bells yesterday was amazing. Today it's on from Vail to Estes Park.

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  21. #851

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi TS! Thought about our discussion on Sunday and bailed Monday. Picked up a little and missed the downtrend. Glad to hear Colorado is still a s beautiful as always. Great state. If your at Estes park, I hope you get to stop and have lunch at the Stanley Hotel. It's a SHINING experience.

    I'm out of IFTs and sitting in G until October. We'll watch how things go. Good luck in your investing!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #852

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Kudos to those that got in yesterday, a very pretty 5-waves down completed in the morning and I exited my short positions near the bottom as well. But now comes the harder part of the equation, can you figure out which day to get out to preserve gains? If this is just a quick wave 2 up it will end somewhere above 1950ish as soon as today...it could be something bigger though...who knows....I'm no worrying about it an my only agenda today is Garden of the Gods and Pikes Peak. The drive to the top of Mt. Evans yesterday (a parking lot at 14,165'? really?!!) was amazing. Bighorn Sheep were posing for us everywhere, even coming right up to the car...our poor dog went ballistic in the back seat wanting to herd them (she's a Belgian Cattle Dog, or Bouvier des Flanders).

    Maybe this rally can continue into next week, I don't know, but I'm not banking on it. The bulls will have the moon on their side starting on Tuesday so maybe it can even evolve into a rally above 2020?
    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

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